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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Duker who wrote (24854)	10/4/1998 6:09:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Duker, Which SOX do you mean? This year both SOX's lost:-(( BK

To: Duker who wrote (24854)	10/4/1998 6:12:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

re: LRCX is cheap and no one cares Isn't it strange that up until June, the big caps (Coke and Lehman and P&G etc) were expensive and no one cared, they kept buying. Now, lots of things are cheap (or at least a lot cheaper than in June), and no one cares, they keep on selling. There has been a fundamental shift in sentiment, from buying the dips to selling the rallies. This is going to cause a self-sustaining pattern of lower highs, which will continue until: 1) the fundamentals improve (lower interest rates alone won't do it, we need an improvement in the profit picture, which won't happen until late 1999 at the earliest), or 2) until P/E (and P/CF, P/S) ratios are low enough that investors say, "these prices are just too ridiculously low, I have to buy no matter how scared I am". We are near or at that point in a few sectors. Those sectors are the only places an investor has any hope of making money (being long) in the next 12 months. For the overall market, the trailing P/E would have to decline from 22 to 15 (S&P 500 going from 1000 to 700). And that's assuming no recession, or only a short shallow 1990-type recession. If we have a early-1970s-type recession, the market P/E could go to 10. Got to stop typing, I'm scaring myself.