To: Tommaso who wrote (1492 ) 10/4/1998 10:36:00 PM From: fred woodall Respond to of 3902
Nikkei -247./J.NTT down 6%/FUJIY down 6.3%//Banks shares holding on G-7 suggestion of using public funds for the bail out. So on it goes. DJ WIRE: The outlook for the world economy has worsened considerably since the last meeting of the International Monetary Fund's Interim Committee, dragged down by deepening recessions in Japan and elsewhere in Asia, as well as by Russia's financial crisis. In a communique after meeting Sunday, the interim committee also said that stock markets world-wide have fallen significantly and commodity prices have weakened further - all leading to significantly greater downside risks. "Many emerging market economies face a particularly difficult environment associated with reduced access to external financing and widening risk premia," the committee's communique noted. "Recent problems have been aggravated by a general weakening of market confidence, reflecting the greater prevalence and intensity of contagion in an increasingly globalized economy," the committee said. "These contagion effects were most evident in those countries with weak policies and inadequate institutions, but many countries with sound fundamentals have also not been spared." While the global economic landscape has grown bleaker since April - when the Interim Committee last met - the communique also made note of positive features that "if reinforced, can help carry forward the response to the crisis." These include solid growth and low inflation in North America and Western Europe. In addition, economic and monetary union in Europe is already contributing to monetary stability, according to the committee. "The Committee looks forward to a successful EMU, which contributes to growth and stability in the international monetary system," the communique stated. The maintenance of growth in China and India, combined with progress in some of the Asian crisis countries toward financial stabilization and improved external positions, "has allowed the recent cautious easing of macroeconomic policies," according to the Interim Committee. The strengthening fundamentals and underlying growth performance of several developing and transition countries also has helped contain the crisis and limit the use of market restrictions, the communique said. Moreover, "protectionist pressures have so far been kept in check," the committee said. Committee members were unanimous in agreeing that "forceful action" is needed by member countries on a broad range of policy issues with the "overriding aim of restoring market confidence and growth where needed." In its review of policy responses to recent crises, the Interim Committee "deemed it crucial that a strong cooperative effort be pursued by all countries and institutions to support those countries that have been adversely affected by the recent developments and which are implementing strong economic adjustment programs." The committee endorsed the strategy adopted by the international community in dealing with the Asian crisis, noting that "stability in the affected countries' currencies should, if maintained, allow for a further cautious easing of monetary policies." Nonetheless, the Interim Committee remains concerned about the depth of the recession in many Asian countries and the negative impact on the welfare of large portions of the populations. In order to secure economic recoveries, Asian crisis countries must "forcefully" address structural weaknesses in their financial and corporate sectors and develop effective mechanisms to facilitate debt workouts. At a press conference late Sunday, Italian Finance Minister Carlo Ciampi said committee members - finance ministers and central bankers representing the IMF's 182 member countries - "believe that an upswing in Japan's economy is of fundamental importance." This will require reviving domestic demand, which in turn depends on fiscal-stimulus measures. In addition, Japan should take "prompt and resolute" action to strengthen its banking system, the committee's communique stressed. As for Russia, the Interim Committee encouraged the new government to "take immediate measures to re-establish confidence in the ruble, restore the payments mechanism, and work with creditors to develop a cooperative solution to Russia's debts." The Russian government also needs to tackle the root causes of the crisis, especially the country's persistent fiscal imbalances and inadequacies in the taxation system and banking sector, the committee urged. Ciampi observed that the Russian delegation "gave a clear indication that they won't return to the economic practices of the past." The communique's tone struck a balance, noting that while Russia must bolster the rule of law, market competition and private enterprise, it also needs to minimize the social impact of the crisis there. Meanwhile, committee members reaffirmed that the international community, including the international financial institutions, stands ready to support "convincing and effective measures to stabilize and reform the Russian economy."