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To: duncan moyer who wrote (15966)10/4/1998 9:56:00 PM
From: Sawtooth  Respond to of 152472
 
Duncan: Nice report on Qcom. Mentions Brazil/CDMA. Election now over; Cardoso reelected Pres. w/54% of the vote. Wonder what street reaction will be for companies w/significant Brazilian op's?



To: duncan moyer who wrote (15966)10/4/1998 10:05:00 PM
From: Ruffian  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
 
Duncan, My mistake it was Sept, 8th. Not really old or new.

Regards,

Michael



October 04, 1998

CINEWS
September 8, 1998

CDMA rollouts delayed in China

By Lynnette Luna

An old Chinese saying may be relevant to the commercialization of
CDMA mobile phone networks in China—‘‘Those who know don't talk,
and those who talk don't know''—at least on the record.

When will Code Division Multiple Access networks be launched
commercially in China? No one knows for sure. It's a sensitive
subject—in particular because the People's Liberation Army owns 50
percent of China Telecom Great Wall, China's only mobile phone
operator that has been experimenting with CDMA mobile phone
networks.

‘‘It is true that CDMA rollouts continue to be delayed in China,'' said one
source close to the situation. ‘‘But right now, there are no indications that
the rollouts will continue to be delayed or protracted in any way. What is
taking place is a review at a strategic level by senior officials in China
because of the PLA affiliation in CDMA. They own the spectrum. The
[president] is in strong opposition to the PLA's participation in
commercial affairs. The CDMA systems just got in the way.''

Sources say the PLA, part army and part commercial conglomerate, has
tremendous economic strength and influence in China. It is estimated the
PLA owns nearly 20,000 businesses, ranging from pharmaceutical
factories to hotels to telecom businesses. Published reports indicate its
disparate assembly of businesses potentially bring in as much as $20
billion annually. As China moves toward an economy shaped by market
forces, it is aiming to push the PLA out of the commercial sector and get
rid of the corruption the Chinese government says is associated with the
PLA.

The effort is tricky, especially in the telecom sector, where the PLA owns
a great deal of frequency. It doesn't want to lose control of this important
sector.

As it stands, the Chinese government is expected in early October to
announce when CDMA networks will be allowed to grow commercially.
Sources indicate the government had planned in July to allow CDMA
service to expand into 10 provinces, but PLA influence stepped in the
way. Great Wall currently is operating four experimental CDMA
networks in the cities of Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Xian.
Motorola Inc., Lucent Technologies Inc., Samsung Ltd. and Northern
Telecom Ltd. supply equipment. Commercial rollout of the four networks
was delayed previously because of the reluctance of the Ministry of Posts
and Telecommunication to grant interconnection, said a recent report from
Herschel Shosteck Associates Ltd.

Sources indicate the Chinese government is looking at three models of
how to weave the PLA out of Great Wall's ownership. One is allowing
Great Wall to become a stand-alone enterprise. The other two consist of
allowing the operator to become a subsidiary of either China United
Telecommunications Corp. (Unicom) or China Telecom Ltd., China's
other two mobile phone operators.

‘‘In all three of those cases, the PLA's involvement would become a
passive involvement,'' said one source. ‘‘In some cases, they are looking
at giving the PLA the equivalent of some proportionate ownership share in
order to get a share of the revenues that would compensate them for use
of the frequency.''

At any rate, CDMA technology won't be dead in China, insists Terry Yen
of the CDMA Development Group. China Unicom, set up in 1994 to
break up the monopoly of China Telecom, plans to construct CDMA
cellular networks and Global System for Mobile communications
networks in the Yangtze and Pearl River deltas and in the Bohai Sea area.
These networks will be expanded further to cover China's most populous
provinces.

‘‘There are four separate wireless local loop trials at 1900 MHz in
China,'' said Yen. ‘‘Prospects on the WLL are still very big. WLL
doesn't face the same issues of army involvement.''

But CDMA technology will have a long way to go in China. China
Telecom is the world's biggest GSM operator with 13 million
subscribers—one-seventh of the world's total. The carrier, which also
operates a TACS network, recently signed its 20 millionth mobile phone
subscriber. China Unicom, which operates a GSM network, barely has
been able to grab 3 percent of the mobile phone market, but hopes to
have 1 million GSM subscribers by the end of the year.

Foreign competition isn't likely to enter China's mobile phone operations
for several more years. The government's latest proposal to gain entry into
the World Trade Organization offered to open gradually its paging and
mobile phone operating services to foreign competition.

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