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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shtirlitz who wrote (14369)	10/4/1998 10:46:00 PM
From: Jose Matos	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

OT: S&P futures: does anyone know a good website or link where S&P futures are listed? Besides watching CNBC after 6pm or after 6am, there has to be another source to get an idea of where tomorrow will open. Thanks. Jose.

To: Shtirlitz who wrote (14369)	10/4/1998 11:00:00 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Shtirlitz, I took a brief look on the last 10-Qs and the 8k recently filed. The 8k merely contains the notification of: -the cease of operation of their learning centers, which erased their revenues, but an unknown number of costs. Still they hope it improves their financials as the learning centers were money losing and claim that they could sell the business, though it is on "low-margin, competitive and revenues are nonrecurring(?)" thus implying a low sale price for the assets associated with that business. They point out that their new business model reads e-commerce, IMO a not much less competitive market sector. Note that the FTC warned IMAL to abstain from these phony learning stories. Even IMAL noted that: "The Company has found that an effective method of selling Web sites is in conjunction with Internet education. Therefore, the Company conducts Internet marketing and educational seminars in approximately two cities per week. These preview seminars target individuals and businesses interested in marketing their products and services on the Internet, or simply learning about business applications of the Internet." Taken from: 02/12/98 10SB12G, pagina 7. (http://www4.edgar-online.com/brand/yahoo/gdoc/?choice=2-927891&nad=0) The actual 10-Q lists the amount monthly burn rate, but they seem to pay cash on their outstanding convertible debentures. In July they paid 1M . They avoid to go into further detail about their revenues and corresponding gross margin contributions. The revenue share of the now closed division, as they post in the 8k though - is at 90% of total, but there must be some gross margins linked to it - if the overall gross margin comes in at some 73% (69% trailing). Hard to say how much of the general expenses are linked to the closed division again, but in the short run, they apply rather fixed, thus increasing the cash burn rate for the rest of the year. The selling expenses seem to be necessary if they want to hang on on their new biz ideas, as they have to pay for their market entry, if ever happens. Note they burn cash at at least 800k a month, add in new ad costs, maybe debt service, and some costs for the close of business parts. Though, they post that they can survive the next 12 months with the present cash , a fact I can not believe when they want to increase their presence in internet media, giving away gross margins, and paying for additional ads. For the free float and possible market price direction, not that: "Certain of the officers and directors of the Company holding in the aggregate 4,669,167 shares of Common Stock have entered into lock-up agreements with Commonwealth Associates, the placement agent in the December 1997 private placement, which provide that, absent the consent of Commonwealth Associates, they will be prohibited from selling their Common Stock until December 19, 1998. Any future sale of such shares, including sale upon the expiration of such lock-up agreements, could have an adverse effect on the market, if any, for the Company's Common Stock. ..." This is part of the important SB2 filed in 30/6/98 registering a boatload of warrants, underlying for convertibles, and ordinary common stock. All share counts and relevant numbers seem to be adjusted for the 1-8 reverse split already. www4.edgar-online.com The convertible from Dec '97 is really devil. Neither is it redeemable, but IMAL is forced to pay cash dividends or the conversion ratio is adjusted 10% downwards, despite the fact that the amount is acreeting when dividends are left unpaid. If the price exceeds now 8$ for a month then automatic conversion applies after the 1-year running time which also seems to expire 5-Dec 1998 (Date of event plus 1-year). The automatic conv. feature makes it a safe short in the light that the company itself has no interest of early conversion, as long as they have enough money to pay down the semianual dividend. Note that numbers are not adjusted. www4.edgar-online.com It may be necessary to establish a short position in front of that time given the overall vulnerable market, especially for money-losing co's. There are some face-down cards, still. Shtirlitz, thank you for bringing up IMAL. C.