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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (7067)10/4/1998 11:00:00 PM
From: Ian@SI  Respond to of 10921
 
Zeev,

That's definitely the favoured option among the Doom and Gloomers who're convinced that we're headed into a Depression rather than a Recession.

Another possibility is that Full Employment combined with falling prices could lead to this Xmas being a winner in every sense.

Reality probably lies somewhere in between.

But where?

Ian



To: Zeev Hed who wrote (7067)10/5/1998 6:32:00 AM
From: Mason Barge  Respond to of 10921
 
"Rick, I am shocked -- shocked! -- to discover gambling going on at your establishment"
- Louis, "Casablanca"

And I am shocked to discover that Japanese banks have more problems than they have shared with the rest of us. From this morning's NY Times:

<<WASHINGTON -- Japan's top financial officials told their American counterparts this weekend that their country's banking system was acutely short of capital, with the top 19 banks in deeper trouble than Tokyo has ever before admitted, according to officials familiar with the discussions.

At a private meeting Saturday, the governor of the Bank of Japan, Masaru Hayami, told Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, that the capital supporting those 19 major banks has dwindled to dangerously low levels in recent months.

The capital reserve levels are now so low that these banks of the world's second largest economy might be banned from operating internationally "if the rules were vigorously pursued," said a senior Japanese official, relating the conversation.

But on Sunday, in a reflection of the enormous confusion surrounding Japan's financial crisis, other senior Japanese officials disputed Hayami's presentation and insisted that the reserve levels have not declined to dangerous levels.

Banks that want to operate globally are required to keep on hand capital amounting to at least 8 percent of their outstanding loans. Few and fewer of Japan's banks can meet that standard today. Hayami's remarks suggest some may fall below the 4 percent minimum for operating within Japan's borders. >>