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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (30244)	10/5/1998 6:35:00 AM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 94695

INDEX UPDATE ----------------------- JAPAN closed down 2% and HK closed down 4%. Early in the morning the S&P FUTURES were down about 17, but now only down 5%. Germany was down earlier but now up 3%, and BRITAIN/FRANCE up slightly. If you recall, Europe, especially Germany, was down big at the end of the week and they are due for a technical bounce, but this bounce may only be short-lived. Europe is short-term oversold. When Europe closed down big on Friday, our market closed up 260 DOW points above the intraday low. The futures really volitile now. Since I started typing it was down only 5, now its down 13. Per my SHORT-TERM TECHNICAL - Fridays close put all of the major international markets in the oversold range and many are CLASS BUYs, except for our market which is in the lower mid-range(reading of 25-30) in light of the 260 point runup on Friday. Therefore I am expecting some sort of bounce this week in the international markets. In light of the futures being down 13, sure a big sell off could start now, but per my technicals it is more likely to start in the time frame of OCT 7-13 and continue into the week of OCT 19. It is during this period that the probability of breaking 7400 should occur. Now that Im finished with the post the futures is down 9. Its moving fast. Could imply intraday volitility, but am leaning towards the position that today should NOT be a huge decline(100-150+ down).

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (30244)	10/8/1998 10:16:00 PM
From: Vitas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

David, re: air pockets and "crashes" On 10/2/87, the right shoulder before the crash, the NYSE % over 200 MA was 67.16; on 10/10/89, just before the mini-"crash" it was 74.01; on 10/21/97, the right shoulder before the mini- "crash" it was 83.43. Recently, on 9/23/98, it was 24.08, much closer to oversold than overbought as in the above situations. If you examine this post: Message 5949699 you will see that major smashes in the summation have occurred within a short period of time from the highs, and we are getting beyond that time period. Have you spotted any occurrences in the past where we have had a substantial sharp further sell off after we were already bear market oversold and that occurred more than 2 months after the primary high? Vitas