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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (30246)	10/5/1998 1:35:00 AM
From: Brad Bolen	Respond to of 94695

RE: Your thoughtful analysis proves once again that the "efficient markets" theory will only fly in the classroom, where no one with real experience can refute it. Now that's an interesting thought. Efficient Market theory might suggest that the number of people that beat the market does not fall outside the number you would expect to fall outside the various standard deviations of luck...i.e. the same could be expected from a study rolling dice or coin flipping etc... If enough people throw a coin twenty times, a few will throw 20 heads in a row. Put graphically, the ratio of the number of people who threw heads vs tails would resemble a bell curve. The same is more or less true, (evidently to efficient market theorists) for the stock market. A graphical representation of consistently good stock pickers would be very similar to that same bell curve from coin tossing, or so these theorists suggest. Which brings me to a nostalgic memory of days of yore when I got graded in class. The number of 'smart' kids to dumb one's--A's B's...F's-- when represented graphically looked like that same bell curve. Should we, could we, then superimpose the graph of the successful market players onto the charts of all those class grading charts I remember.... I see a pattern here...as I wonder if those efficient market theorists have found a way to take investor intelligence into account--that quite possibly their graph of investor success does indeed match that of the 'smarts' of the public Hmmm...would all kahunites please step to the right side of the curve. B.

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (30246)	10/5/1998 10:52:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 94695

Hi David; It looks to me like you have the picture <G> The playing field is tilted to favor the more powerful, and this is disguised in many ways. They have a back door out when things go all to hell, and the little guy is left holding the bag. I'm getting to old to have a lot of personal concern about it, but having sired a passel of children it troubles me that I approach the end of my run , leaving them with a country that looks gutted, and corrupted to the hilt. I'm not talking of Clinton's Libido problems, that's small potatoes to what is going on. I think the news media is directed to focus on that to keep people distracted from the nature of the larger and more sinister happenings. The pundits use words such as "crony capitalism" to describe Japan but really what they have evolved into and what we are developing is a "crony communism" with a twist in it. To belong to the Party you have to be a broker, banker, lawyer or politician. Jim