re: Satellite Telephones
I could go on and on about satellite telephone systems and bore everyone, but there is a Globalstar thread on SI where everyone who is interested can look for more information. Yes, Mqurice posts there, too.
Trust me, while this is a lengthy post, this IS the short version:
Throughout most of the world, nobody has ever (and nobody will ever) built a wired telephone system. This is because there is insufficient population density (hence insufficient local economics) to support it. Even such third world places as Pennsylvania have significant areas where wired telephones are essentially unavailable. This is one of the reasons wireless systems like conventional cellular, PCS, WLL, etc. have come into being. No wires imply no need for wire, telephone poles or any of that expensive fixed infrastructure that is technologically obsolete before it is installed. Even these wireless systems, however, have infrastructure costs, and nobody is going to install them where they cannot reasonably expect significant usage rates.
I do not know exactly where you live, but where I live in suburban Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA, I can choose between a number of carriers offering every kind of alphabet soup cellular technology. I personally use both AMPS and TDMA. And within the limits of where I regularly travel, both of these systems work fine, thank you very much. However, if I drive as little as thirty or forty miles North or West, the situation gets considerably more dicey. Coverage in the agricultural areas is less complete, and if we get to the Blue Mountains and the Allegheny Mountains (which, while nice enough, do not even begin to compare with Europe's Alps) fuggedaboutit.
If we extend this to other places even more third world than Pennsylvania -- for instance, Ohio (just to keep this USA-centric) -- then it becomes obvious to me that all currently implemented systems and all contemplated land-based wireless systems will not solve the problem. One estimate I've seen says that current and proposed cellular/PCS systems cover about twenty to thirty percent (variation due to quality of service issues -- maybe it works on top of a hill but not down in the hollar'.) It seems to me I begin to smell an market opportunity. It may be a niche, but it is a pretty big niche, and I have put a healthy chunk of my personal fortune (ha ha!) into satellite telephone companies as a result.
Iridium has some really interesting technology. Unfortunately, it cost a whole bunch and most of it is way out there in space where it cannot be upgraded or repaired. I agree with you that their handsets and service will be expensive, but I expect there are enough globetrotting business people and government types (read military) who need "absolutely everywhere" service (includes eskimo and penguin territories) enough to pay these rates. Since they are first to market, they will capture the early adopter crowd, too. Whether they will be successful enough to finance and build a second constellation a few years down the line is another question with a much less certain answer.
Globalstar, on the other hand, has not used such interesting (read "unproven") technology, and all the fancy stuff is on the ground where upgrades and service are relatively simple to accomplish. Yes, they have been having some small trouble getting their satellites into space (arggh!) but they will get it done. Because their costs have been lower and their system capacity is much higher, Globalstar will have significant cost advantages over iridium. The last numbers I saw had handsets costing US $750 with airtime at less than US $1.00 per minute. Obviously, costs in Europe will be determined by the local service provider. Globalstar's initial wholesale cost will be $.47 per minute, so everything over and above that is local cost and local taxes.
My personal rule of thumb is that if the average person with a Volvo (my wife drives an S70, about US $30,000.00 new) can afford it, then there are enough potential customers to make it financially viable. After that, it is all marketing.
As far as the cost and relative clunkiness of the satellite handsets, not to worry too much. When I bought my first "portable" cellular phone more than ten years ago (for US $1,300) it was the size of an unabridged dictionary and weighed even more. This is a large reason why cellular phones in the USA were for a long time "car phones" where this size and weight became irrelevant. The newest handheld QCOM models are bigger than a Matchbox car, but that's good, because so are my hands and the distance from my mouth to my ears is, too. In fact, IMHO the newest really teenie tiny phones I've seen are smaller than my comfort factor, being a full-size adult with full size fingers trying to delicately input phone numbers on tiny keypads. I do not expect satellite phones will ever get that small, but they will obviously get much smaller than the models seen so far. This is already happening.
By the way, you may or may not be aware that QCOM is a major technology supplier to Globalstar and owns a chunk of it, too. QCOM will be manufacturing Globalstar phones, which will also work on CDMA networks. I forget who all the Globalstar handset manufacturing partners are, but I believe Ericsson is one of them and will be selling a Globalstar phone that will also work on GSM systems.
As far as quality of service issues are concerned, Globastar will be using QCOM's CDMA technology between the handset and the satellite, so the clarity will be no problem. Also, both Iridium and Globalstar are LEO (Low Earth Orbit) systems as opposed to GEO (GEOstationary) satellites. This means they are not as far out there so the signal does not have as far to travel. This means the latency (oversimplified, this is the time it takes for the signal to go up and come back down) is not noticable.
By the way, Globalstar will also be using some of its capacity for "Village Phone" systems in genuine third world areas, where most of the population has never seen a phone, much less called anyone. More than half the world's population has never made a call. I know this is true, but it is hard to imagine for this American who grew up with unlimited telephone use. |
