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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (20782)	10/5/1998 5:02:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

When I was writing the previous message the market on Globex were at 1002-- Europe had opened sharply lower however I see some short covering in Germany and CAC after a second trest of 2960 area is back above 3000 level, this hide and seek will carry on but if we are unable to break 1000 today I would think that bond will see prices softening and yield rising-- the strange element is that Japan breaking below 13000 was suppose to be heralding new selling Why is Europe bouncing off the lows is strange? If markets ignore Japan lot of shot needs to be covered on Nikei futures-- today I will not be surprised to see Globex actually opening higher instead of sharply lower--- the sequence of events are lined up in a manner that if we break the supports on SPZ we will see some big time programme selling hitting the market but if Europe snubs behind the market moves and continue to rally we may see different scenario developing-- this is not a bear market within a bull trend a correction and test of stronger hands resolve-- deflation the way my Professor taught me in Ecoomics 101 does not come on the back of nearly full employment and industrial production in Aug of more that 382 billion $'s-- .80 percent increase over the previous month- deflation is associated with 10% unemployment falling income and seriously hit manaufactring sector-- These present movements are market self corrective devices working at its best-- the markets overvaluations are being wiped out, hype is being mellowed but we will continue to see the growth in US economy and 1150 remains my 80 days target with or without 850 test... I need to see composite and BKX take out 1675 600 for a credible move-- watch out for important signals from these very important indexes...........

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (20782)	10/5/1998 8:31:00 AM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 50167

IKe, Great post, and I love your strategy in here. Also, I think you are on the money in pointing out strength of DAX and CAC, THE NEW MARKET LEADERS RIGHT NOW. Let's see if U.S markets can dig its way out of hole right out of the blocks. I for one do not want to be the frog in warm water about to get cooked. Like AQ says, KEEP YOUR CASH, THE MARKETS ARE OPEN EVERY DAY. I would like to comment on your strategy but will be out on the road til tonight after market close. Good Trading . JT

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (20782)	10/5/1998 10:01:00 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

AQ, In no particular order I would like to address several points you bring up in your "macroview post" that should be thoroughly exhausted with you or anyone else interested in dissecting this market going forward. 1) BKX broke down to 626 and I hope you can help me with this interrelationship via the broad market going forward. Truly, once this shakes out there will be tremendous opportunity in the banking sector going forward. However, given the calamity of the seriousness of this configuration from a negative TA standpoint, I would simply stay on the sidelines in this index and group in general until a bottom and retest of a bottom is put in play. Simply put, not here and not now, IMHO, unless you can convince me of a very plausible argument why to bottom fish now. Which leads me to #2. 2) why in the sam hell is the 30 treasury yield down to 4.7 something percent?? Surely there is this flight to quality but what is the underlying message? Junk bonds spreads relative to AAA paper is at its widest point since 91' and it may exacerbate even wider... Why is this? Deflation? Markets have already factored in coming deriviative problems and unwinding of speculation. But is there more??? How about the ECU coming on Jan 1, 99 and the D-mark now acting as proxy for new currency unit and $$ now taking a backseat? Help me on this, sir IKe...Lower $$ is confidence crisis in Bubba's ability to lead and paralysis of his own unbecoming outside activites. DAX is new leader no doubt going forward with CAC as supporting cast. 3) I was most impressed that 7550 held like rock of gibralter. We now know where serious line in the sand is drawn for BEAR/BULL tug of war. I read a report that there was a huge buy program 15 minutes before the bell that accounted for 106 points of the DOW reversal. I have no proof of this and even checked time and sales of several Dow stocks. However, this support will be tested again, and this last test WILL FAIL, IMHO. I've read Abbey and Goldman and I truly believe one more shakeout is in the offing. Then we can re-establish supports and go from there. Just some thoughts... JT