Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (1361)	10/5/1998 7:32:00 AM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Bob Brinker's Contract / ABC Repost from the other thread (Posted by Don Lane): Brinker's contract supposedly expires in a couple months around the end of the year, but I do not expect to hear him much more after this month. He usually takes off alot around Thanksgiving and Christmas and New Years weekends anyway, so after another few weekends here and there he will probably take his golf clubs out on weekend too. So all of you will need to find somebody else to trash everyday since you certainly will not have Brinker to kick around anymore if he takes a hike. And after reading these boards, if I were him, I would be very tempted to take a hike. He surely does not need this, and I will be surprised if he continues past the next few weeks. I guess he will continue his newsletter for awhile though.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (1361)	10/5/1998 9:50:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 15132

Saturday Summary On August 31 and Sept 1 that he market's intermediate term correction reached its maximum level. In fact, on September 1, we established all time record volume on the NYSE of 1.2 b. The market established the intraday low of 7401. On August 31, we established the correction closing lows of DOW 7539, S & P 957 and NASDAQ 1499 On September 1, NASDAQ traded into 1460s intraday and had record volume of 1.25b We established at that point was a significant intermediate term bottom in terms of the level of the indexes and we did it on all time record volume. Of the sixteen occasions where a significant bottom has been established over the past thirty five years, on all but one the market has had a full retest of the lows. We had minor tests on September 4 (Dow 7630 close) and September 10 (7615 close) but no full retest. What happened on October 1, was a big deal. The Dow closed at 7632 but the volume was down 25% to 900m which is a major reduction of volume. NASDAQ closed several percentage points above its low and did so on less than 900m shares which was more than 25 of the September 1 level. We had three things occur on the test: (1) we had a major index go back to the vicinity of the low (Dow about 1% from its low; S & P about 3%); (2) we need lower volume and we got that; (3) the number of new yearly lows of the test (August 31 NYSE had 1183 new lows and October 1 there was 310 or a reduction of 75% which was huge; NASDAQ August 31 had 1263 new lows but 398 on October 1 or about 75%). "We have put in our 1998 intermediate term bottom according to our timing model and we have now set the stage for a rally to new record highs over the next six to twelve months and we are now in a position where the rally can begin at any time. Although it is posible that the market can do additional testing and probing during the month of October, it is no longer necessary. We are now at the position where we can say we have had a significant test of the lows, the critical benchmarks have fallen into place beautifully and the market has now established a bottom by shaking out the weak hands and the nervous nellies and those that do not belong in the market in the first place and creating a tremendous level of bearish sentiment which is on the order of about 56% bears in the last few weeks on average..." The preconditions for the rally to new highs are in place. The surprises now going forward will be on the upside. No deflationary depression like 1929 with FDIC insurance and margin requirements above 10%. We could have have 0% inflation going forward. Now it is about 1 - 2%. O% inflation in a slow growth economy would be bullish. We established the lows before we knew about LTC. Since then we have learned of LTC and we have not gone through the lows. This tells Brinker there is a lot of relative strength in the market relative to the background of LTC. "At some point during the month of October, we are going to see the market reverse direction off these lows and start a rally which will eventually carry us to to record highs to the shock of the bears." Brinker says there will be one or two more additional rate cuts due to the slowing economy. No change on UTEK. While earnings may be hurt somewhat this year and next, Brinker likes the prospects going forward. There has never been a better time to refinance.