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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bucky89 who wrote (55241)	10/5/1998 11:13:00 AM
From: Mighty Mizzou	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

Looks like major damage will be done to the big guys today. Be on your toes for bargain hunting today. If today stays bad or gets worse, that will make for more likelihood of a dead cat bounce tomorrow in quality stocks. May wait to the last minute for a buy today.

To: bucky89 who wrote (55241)	10/6/1998 3:30:00 AM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 61433

This is easily explained by customers holding up purchases of their 31670's until the new release. Doesn't necessarily mean they are stealing new customers with the 36170. Bucky, Could you give specific evidence when you suggest orders aren't coming in for NN's 36170? From second quarter's earnings report: <<< WAN ATM revenue in the fourth quarter of fiscal 1998 – led by the Company's flagship platform and the industry's best selling ATM system, the MainStreetXpress™ 36170 Multiservices Switch ----– was more than double the level achieved in the previous year's fourth quarter. WAN packet revenue for fiscal 1998 was approximately 70 percent higher than in fiscal 1997.>>> And from the most recent quarterly report: <<<< Order intake increased by 17 percent compared with the previous quarter. Orders exceeded shipments in the quarter, resulting in a positive book-to-bill ratio. This was the eighth consecutive quarter in which book-to-bill was greater than one. Order intake was driven by strong growth in orders received for the MainStreetXpress™ 36170 Multiservices Switch, for which orders increased almost 30 percent sequentially. All three geographic sales regions – North and South America (NSA), Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMA) and Asia Pacific Region (APR) – delivered higher revenue, order intake and backlog, compared with the previous quarter. >>> This was before Version 3.1 was released and from the conference call the same day earnings came out: "We're seeing double digit growth in the 3.1. More volume based on the new release," said Scott Marshall, EVP for access products. In that same conference call, Terry Matthews talked about DWDM being integrated into the 36170 and said it was a "monster advantage" to offer it within the machine. As for their VIVID products, the analyst from Furman Selz asked about sales and Scott Marshall replied, "We're focusing on other areas." I don't know if it's being scrapped, but it's clear they're not trying to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. In analyzing the company I suggest it would be more productive to look at what they have, not at what they don't have. Besides their leading ATM products, their affiliate, Cambrian Systems, has DWDM which has been used in trials with Lucent's long-haul products and are fully interoperable. In 1997 the Metropolitan Area Network market was estimated to reach $1.9 billion in 2002 and has since been upped to $2.3 billiion by 2001 and $4.3 billion by 2002. Cambrian's share is conservatively estimated to be 20%. A year ago the company had 38 personnel; today they have 170. Check out their top engineers and you'll discover most came directly from Nortel. TM owns 22% and NN 40%. In the LMDS sector, NN recently won the first two contracts ever awarded in Canada: WIC Connexus and MaxLink. At NN's recent analyst conference held in Ottawa, someone asked Joel Bell, MaxLinks' CEO, why NN was selected. He listed five reasons: 1) services orientation, data-centric on ATM, 2) more highly functional at cell site. "The 36170 does more and is built on a deployed, tested, product," 3) permits selection among RF equipment supplires, 4) network management orientation allows monitoring frm central point, and 5) they seemed to understand challenges of start-ups. Someone else asked who else had bid and he said, "all of them." Alan Lutz said to expect another major LMDS win in Q3. If you're interested in the other prizes in NN's Cracker Jacks box, check out their affiliates: newbridge.com mainstreetxpress.com mainstreetxpress.com I've respected your posts over the last year, but when it comes to NN, you do yourself no service to throw out general statements that don't hold water. I believe between now and the end of the year you'll find yourself letting out a few low whistles and saying ever so humbly, "I had no idea. . ." I've done my homework and put my money behind NN. Pat