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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clint E. who wrote (17879)	10/5/1998 12:04:00 PM
From: space cadet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69786

Clint, I wanted to get in putting bcms put missed it somehow. It could fall quite a bit. Yup the titans are definitely crashing, which usually means the end of the correction is near, but perhaps this time it will be different since there are so many simultaneous problems this time. And definitely WS changes fads every year or two. Enterprise was one in a long list of fads and it lead to extreme overvaluations of those companies. Even today after psft and the rest have fallen, they are still overvalued in my opinion. They have p/e's higher than their growth rates, for instance. So they could fall another 20-50% in my opinion. Yes yhoo has an amazing valuation but that is because the web is now the hot topic on WS and yhoo has the mindshare. As to all those brilliant programmers- well they may be brilliant and perhaps you are one of them but I think they are overpaid and not nearly as useful as management these days seems to believe. Programmers are useful of course, but I think they have salaries that are too high for their real use. Not as overinflated as lawyers or doctors but overinflated nevertheless. If we have a recession then programmers salaries will return to earth, take my word. In terms of traditional valuation measures like p/e to growth rates, the market is still amazingly expensive. I'm not saying it will return to "normal" valuations anytime soon, just that there is a risk that it might that's worth worrying about.