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Strategies & Market Trends : The Stock Market Bubble -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cAPSLOCK who wrote (1989)	10/5/1998 12:44:00 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 3339

Is she a broken record? Keyword broken? Monday October 5, 11:24 am Eastern Time U.S. stocks,bonds undervalued-Goldman Sachs' Cohen WASHINGTON, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs' Abby Cohen said on Monday that the U.S. stock market and corporate bonds were undervalued. ''At today's stock prices, we think the S&P 500 is moderately undervalued based on our view for 1999,'' Cohen said in a speech to the National Association for Business Economists. ''We believe that corporate bonds are undervalued relative to U.S. Treasuries based on our view for 1999.'' Cohen said her team thought that the stock market was ''roughly at fair value'' this summer but she said after stock prices ''significantly declined,'' she believed the undervaluation that had marked stock prices in the early 1990s had been re-established. She said the team thought that the stock price decline had caused a 12-15 percent undervaluation in the Standard and Poor's stock index. ''And we still believe that to be the case,'' she said. Cohen said that implicit in the current stock market prices was a belief that the U.S. economy was headed into a recession. But she disagreed with that outlook, saying the U.S. economy -- which she described as a supertanker -- would weather the financial crisis abroad and record moderate growth. ''We believe the current valuations in our financial markets make sense only in an environment where the U.S. economic expansion is over, and we don't think so,'' she said. She said that would make for ''good'' returns on equity. Cohen said that the economic woes in foreign countries would no doubt damage the U.S. economy but perhaps not as much as many analysts assumed. She said that while export markets will suffer, U.S. corporations have strength in ''value-added'' areas such as technology and entertainment that are less sensitive to potential global price declines than other more traditional export sectors. She also added that healthy but perhaps more moderate demand within the U.S. economy itself would help support profits.

To: cAPSLOCK who wrote (1989)	10/5/1998 1:28:00 PM
From: Bill Ounce	Respond to of 3339

re: my play on potential crash/start of bear market Last summer, I re-allocated my investments away from equities when Thailand, Korea and Indonesia simultaneously started melting down. This (temporarily) helped our markets reach new heights, so I picked up a few December 1998 OEX LEAPS puts as our market kept setting new records. It's mainly for educational value, but it could turn profitable. I watched their value evaporate until the August Correction. Hindsite is I probably should have sold them then for a 3-4X profit. But I thought worse things would come. (The market was reacting to Russia, which is a small economic player as compared to Japan.) Japan is very scarey, who knows just how bad their banks are? Think this should cause a bigger correction than Russia's meltdown. But, will it come before mid-December. The time value now is only 3 months, where as in August it was 5 months. Now they are at "break even" again. However, if we have a significant extension of the correction, they could give me a 5x+ profit. Think I'll pick up another small position in December 1999 OEX LEAPS puts during the next rally. Would prefer to close my existing position first though. A Y2K panic, plus international banking problems could make for a nasty drop sometime in 1999.

To: cAPSLOCK who wrote (1989)	10/5/1998 3:59:00 PM
From: WhipsawMcGraw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3339

$200.00 prize for whoever picks how the Dow will end up in 98. You seem bearish and thought you might want the domain http:/www.flatfeetrading.com This contest is in the middle of the first page. My guess was for Dow 6,500