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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (17884)	10/5/1998 10:40:00 PM
From: Lachesis Atropos	Respond to of 70304

Hi Harry, Statement shock (401K statements) is one of my rationalizations for shorting. Though, I receive my 401K statements twice a month. I do think some receive these on a quarterly basis. Hmm 20 points, my old stats prof said that any samples under 33 are not very creditable. Bollinger bands work well with 20. I have a though for an indicator. I'll explain later. I am in a bind with a project. A project landed in my lap, 5 weeks ago and it has missed two deadlines--system test and user acceptance testing. My gut feeling is to pull the software however management wants me to push it through user acceptance testing. When is comes to bugs, this software is a veritable ant farm. I have to keep stepping on them as users find them. I am at work, verifying that all user know bugs have been fixed. Later Lachesis

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (17884)	10/9/1998 4:47:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 70304

Friday, October 9, 1998 JDS result better than expected By JILL VARDY Technology Reporter The Financial Post OTTAWA Shares in JDS Fitel Ltd. whipsawed yesterday on good anticipated results and a lousy market for telecommunications companies. But analysts said the stock (JDS/TSE) will likely jump today as investors digest the company's better-than-expected first quarter. The company, which makes fibre-optic equipment for telecommunications networks, had income of $17.1 million (22¢ a share) on revenue of $80.1 million in its first quarter ended Aug. 31. In the year-ago quarter, it earned $10.2 million (14¢) on sales of $48.6 million. The numbers are considerably better than analysts' estimates. The stock was trading at $13.40 yesterday afternoon, after falling Wednesday by $1.05 to a 52-week low of $14.95. Then it jumped by $2 in less than an hour, closing yesterday up 30¢ to $15.25. "There's no block trades, no big buyers. It's really strange," said Duncan Stewart, a technology analyst who manages the Navigator Canadian Technology mutual fund. Even with yesterday's gain, the stock is still less than half its value of $31.67 a year ago. Like most other telecommunications equipment companies, JDS is suffering from increased competition, a possible drop in demand and the uncertainties that have come from a wave of consolidation in the sector. Add to that a crisis in the Asian and South American economies, which were expected to be the biggest telecom equipment buyers in the next few years, and it is a dangerous time for technology stocks.

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (17884)	10/9/1998 4:48:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 70304

Friday, October 9, 1998 Abby and Ralph trim their targets By IAN KARLEFF The Financial Post Markets sagged yesterday, coinciding with the queen of the bulls, Abby Joseph Cohen, lowering her earnings expectations for Standard & Poor's 500 companies and strategist Ralph Acampora predicting an even lower floor for the Dow Jones industrial average. Despite Cohen's "more subdued expectations for global growth in 1999," the closely watched Goldman Sachs & Co. chief equity strategist did not stray from her long-term bullish sentiments. She expects operating profits for S&P 500 companies to be US$49 a share, down 2.9% from her earlier projection of US$50.50. For 1999, she has slashed her estimate by 4.9%, to US$52.50 a share from US$55. "Unusual developments" in the second half of 1998 including the General Motors Corp. strike, bank trading losses and aggressive end-of-calender year corporate writeoffs are responsible for her lowered earnings targets. But the U.S economy remains a "seaworthy vessel" in the midst of a global storm because of its reliance on technology and entertainment and the move away from manufacturing. Cohen maintains her yearend target of 9300 for the Dow and expects the S&P 500 index to finish the year at 1150, climbing as high as 1250 by the end of 1999. The further deterioration in blue-chip stocks' performance has led Acampora, Prudential Securities' chief technical analyst, to conclude that the Dow's current bottom will not hold. Previously, he said the Dow would find support at about 7400 near the long-standing bottom established Aug. 31, when it closed at 7539, and the intraday low of 7379, reached Sept. 1. Now he says blue-chip performance raises questions about the durability of that level. Larry Wachtel, a market analyst at Prudential, said Acampora has established a worst-case scenario for each of the 30 components of the industrial average, and extrapolated that the Dow could fall as low as 6735 before establishing a new bottom.

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (17884)	10/9/1998 4:49:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70304

Friday, October 9, 1998 Nasdaq's roller coaster ride sends investors fleeing to safety of bonds BY WILLIAM HANLEY The Financial Post The big-name technology stocks took Nasdaq investors on a gut-wrenching ride yesterday that at one point had the composite index on the verge of crashing and burning only to escape the session well above the day's lows. In yet another tumultuous day in the stock markets, the Nasdaq index closed down 43.49 points, or 3%, at 1419.12 a near miraculous recovery from an intraday deficit of 119 points, or 8.1%. Nasdaq is off 9.6% this year and off almost 30% from the record closing high of 2014.25 on July 21. The Dow Jones industrial average also recovered from a big loss to end down only narrowly and the broader Standard & Poor's 500 stock index also regained much lost ground to close with a loss of 1.2%. But all eyes were on Nasdaq and specifically star techs Dell Computer Corp., Microsoft Corp., Intel Corp. and Cisco Systems Corp., which shed tens of billions of dollars of market capitalization on huge trading volumes, then roared back to trim losses and, in Cisco's case, end up on the day. Nereo Piticco, president of PCJ Investment Counsel in Toronto, said the big technology names were the stocks that led the market higher on growth expectations over the past few years. With world growth projections downgraded in the face of the financial crisis, investors decided these stocks could no longer support such high prices and expectations. "In some of these cases, [the tech stocks] are where the profits are, and people are taking the profits wherever they can find them," said Arun Kumar, senior U.S. equities strategist at Lehman Brothers Inc. in New York. Jim Mountain, co-head of institutional equity at Scotia Capital Markets in Toronto, noted if investors had not held the big four Nasdaq techs over the past four years, they would not have matched the Nasdaq index's remarkable gains. Yesterday, Dell Computer (DELL/NASDAQ) closed off US$2 1/8 at US$48 7/16 on volume of 102.7 million shares after earlier hitting a low of US$40 3/4. Microsoft (MSFT/NASDAQ) eased US$2 15/16 to US$91 3/16 after hitting an intraday low of US$87. Intel (INTC/NASDAQ) closed off 5/8 at US$78 7/16 after being down at US$75 13/16. And Cisco Systems (CSCO/NASDAQ) finished US$2 13/16 higher at US$46 11/16, when earlier it hit US$41 1/8. Gerald Vincent, portfolio manager at investment counsel Davis-Rea Ltd. in Toronto, saw the big comeback as a positive sign, saying the earlier decline was "exhausted selling" that showed investors had capitulated. That suggests the major selling may be over and the later comeback is a sign the market could be stabilizing. "It was a significant battle between the bears and the bulls," he said, adding the bulls have been largely absent from the market in recent weeks. "It shows buyers are coming in at certain price levels," and that is positive. Mountain said the selloff in technology stocks betrayed a certain flight to the high-dividend, steady earnings issues such as Philip Morris Cos., which reached a 52-week high this week. "Value investors are finding there's something to buy in the market."