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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: waitwatchwander who wrote (16002)	10/5/1998 4:24:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 152472

Ramsey can't do bungee jumps because of bungee design limits and I prefer more terrifying plunges, such as stockmarkets. I've been over and over Qualcomm, Globalstar and the financial and stock markets. I'm sticking with my original response to Ramsey about the Asian crisis, over a year ago now, that first, the USA people would think that the ants of Asia are irrelevant to the real world of the most mighty, free, glorious and amazing humans who have ever walked the planet since Brontosaurus. So they would ignore the currency problems, which were collapses because of rotten investments derived from the early 1990s 'internationalisation' of Japan Inc. Japan made a deliberate policy of going international. Which they really had to do having outgrown their own little pen economically. So they were creating a greater co-prosperity sphere using their profits from sales to the USA and Europe. Unfortunately, their wisdom in investments seems to have been not hugely better than their military wisdom 70 years ago when they chased my dear Grandparents out of Shanghai with my Mum and brothers. Japan lost their shirt then and it is getting a bit tattered now. In the initial months of the Asian collapse, the USA had passing curiosity about the financial dominoes of Asia. The Dow carried on up to an all time high. It had a little flurry down in 1997 due to internal 'USA getting ahead of itself' feelings, but then reasserted the surge. But after a while, the USA realized that not only is the USA on the same planet as these Asians, but the economies were linked. Then they went overboard and panicked like so many children on Disneyland's Main Street when the big bad wolf turns real and does actually eat a few of the more imprudent naughty little children scoffing Big Macs and ice-cream with no regard for their health or their financial future. That's where we are now. Panic around. Deflation worries. Margin calls. Hedge fund crashes. End of the world demands, which always are popular at the turn of a century. With Y2K disease going to kill more than the smallpox, cholera, influenza and bubonic plagues put together. It's a bit like the ghost train in Disneyland. But real! Now THAT's scary. Ramsey thought right at the beginning that we would get to here and things would turn bad. Hence his sweating palms instead of gleeful plucking of investment plums. I'm sticking with my original idea that we would get to an over-reaction, but really, the USA and western economies are not so strongly linked to mucked up property investments in Asia. I'd say that we are down from Dow 8000 in Feb 1998 by only 10% and nearly 20% from the over excited high earlier this year, and that is just a nice, normal market tidying ding. Hardly a crash. 20% up or down in any year is totally normal for stockmarkets. So we are at a totally normal position. I'm dismayed because the timing matched the damn Zenit rocket crash so what was a very conservative margin account turned into a very risky one, with the equivalent clearance to the concrete pavement of A J Hackett's bungee jump. I don't want the cord to stretch any more! Part of my plan was that Alan Green$pan would do what he has started doing, printing lots of SuperDs to dilute cash holders and rescue improvident borrowers in the interests of stopping a deflationary, derivatives led, market clearing panic. So far so good. And fortunately, the markets are getting time to clear in an orderly way. So I think credit will be firm on the inside and soft on the outside, rather than like a liqueur chocolate, firm on the outside but collapse on the inside. Deflation has conned nearly everyone. There is no deflationary collapse, but don't tell Alan, I like lower interest rates having bet on that in a big way. Deflation is all about a wonderful world getting better and more efficient thanks to the likes of Qualcomm and Globalstar. Oil is cheap [though up 30% from the recent lowest point]. All is well in the world [relatively]. Russia is okay. Qualcomm luckily didn't succeed in their foolish bids in Brazil. Qualcomm sales are booming. Korea is surging surging surging in cdmaOne despite all the panic ealier this year. They aren't travelling, they are staying home buying cellphones flat out. USA is buying cdmaOne like there is no tomorrow. But there is! Qualcomm is bringing out the pdQ and lots more besides. L M Ericsson is caving on cdma2000. Doesn't matter to Qualcomm whether they do or don't. All is well in Qualcomm. Same in Globalstar. The boss of L M Ericsson gave a vote of confidence a couple of days ago saying that the future of wireless is satellite telephony. That means Globalstar, not Orbcomm, or Iridium though I'm envious of their successful launches. I suppose there can be a drop in the Dow still, depending on how panicked people are, but sooner or later, people will realize the world isn't ending. The republicans will give up on the attempt to sack Clinton - I suspect the shareholding public will make a simplistic correlation between impeachment proceedings and the direction of their stocks and vote accordingly in a month or so. Although it's irrelevant, Clinton finishing his term will be the excuse to stop the market decline. Off to golf, Mqurice Mighty Q $80 by 31 October! Dow 16000 Feb 2002. PS: I went on vacation for a few days. Didn't seem to counter the Ramsey effect though! Tarken and our youngest daughter did a bungee jump by being fired up like a slingshot, sitting in a two-seater cage. Seems the world loves bungee jumping, either in markets or for real. I didn't try it! Hundreds of posts to read on return. Mental peace away from a screen.