EYE ON THE WORLD
Vol.2, No.38 - 10/05/98
Pinkerton Global Intelligence Services (PGIS)
The Eye on the World contains extracts from the PGIS Daily and Weekly
Intelligence Summaries analyzing global crimes, terrorism, and civil
unrest. To order the full Daily and Weekly Intelligence Summaries call
(703) 525-6111.
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DAILY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY (DIS) - EXTRACTS
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ASIA [From Daily Intelligence Summary (DIS) - October 1, 1998]
>INDONESIA (Moderate Risk) - Anti-Communist rallies held to throughout the
>country.
To mark the 33rd anniversary of the failed 1965 communist coup, thousands
rallied in support of the government and its efforts to eradicate
communism. Islamic groups in Jakarta rallied outside the city's largest
mosque and then 15 people took a statement to the parliament house
supporting the transfer of power in May from Suharto to Habibie. In the
city of Medan, thousands rallied at the parliament building to demonstrate
support of the government's anti-Communist policies. A small group of 200
in Surabaya protested the military's roles in both politics and defense.
There was no reported violence linked to the demonstrations.
PERSPECTIVE: Communism was perceived as a great evil after the Indonesian
Communist Party (PKI) attempted to overthrow Sukarno on September 30, 1965.
The coup was stopped by former President Suharto, who was an Armed Forces
of the Republic of Indonesia (ABRI) General at the time. In an attempt to
purge the country of Communism, as many as 160,000 to 500,000 people were
killed after the attempted coup. In the last six years, this anniversary
has only been commemorated quietly if at all. With new elections planned
for 1999 many groups presumably participated in the rallies to establish a
public stance against Communism. (10/01/98)
EUROPE [From Daily Intelligence Summary (DIS) - October 2, 1998]
>RUSSIA (Moderate Risk) - Labor leaders say millions will participate in
>October 7 protests.
A nationwide protest set for October 7, 1998 is expected to bring millions
of Russian demonstrators to the streets, demanding payment of back wages
and the resignation of President Boris Yeltsin. "According to our
preliminary informationŠmore than 37,000 companies and organizations will
take part in the strikes, or approximately nine million people in around
9,500 towns, cities and villages across the country," the head of the
Federation of Independent Trade Unions, Mikhail Shamokov, said on September
30. He told a news conference that the protests will be "massive in
character and tough in its demands." In addition to labor organizations,
the Communist Party is supporting and helping to organize the day of
protests. "We appeal to all workersŠto take part in the all-Russian protest
actions, to actively join the struggle to save the Fatherland," Communist
Party leader Gennady Zyuganov said. Both labor leaders and the Communists
say they are working closely with authorities to ensure there is no
violence associated with the protests.
PERSPECTIVE: Although the protests are expected to be very large and to
impact all major cities throughout the country, organizers and authorities
believe they will be peaceful. Most Russians appear to be willing to give
the newly appointed prime minister, Yevgeny Primakov, an opportunity to
develop a economic plan for tackling the financial crisis griping the
country. Primakov has promised to pay wage arrears and to meet government
debt obligations but has, as yet, provided few specifics on his economic
strategy. Most analysts believe that the Primakov government, made up
primarily of centrists and moderate Communists, will take an
interventionist approach to the economy, print money and move toward what
some call a "social market economy." Primakov has also said that his
government would not curb the free circulation of dollars, an issue of
major importance to vast numbers of Russians as they are believed to hold
between US$30 and US$50 billion in cash as a hedge against inflation and
the unstable ruble. (10/02/98)
LATIN AMERICA [From Daily Intelligence Summary (DIS) - October 1, 1998]
>ECUADOR (Moderate Risk) - Bomb injures one in Quito.
A bomb exploded on September 29, 1998, at the offices of the Roman Catholic
Bishops' Conference in Quito. The blast damaged some offices and slightly
wounded one woman. The government linked the attack to protests against
recent austerity measures. The police said the device contained political
pamphlets that asked "for the right to defend sovereignty and the right to
live." The police did not announce whether any political organization had
claimed responsibility for the bomb.
PERSPECTIVE: Trade unions are planning a general strike on October 1
against President Jamil Mahuad's austerity plans. The austerity program is
designed to shore up the economy against fiscal deficit and falling oil
prices. It includes eliminating energy subsidies and devaluing the currency
15 percent. In an effort to offset the effects of the potentially negative
impact on those in the nation's lower economic classes, the government will
offer a monthly US$16 subsidy for the poor. Government Minister Ana Lucia
Armijos said the attack likely was linked to austerity measures "because it
was put in the Bishops' Conference, and the church is helping carry out a
census of who is going to receive the poverty subsidy." (10/01/98)
MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA [From Daily Intelligence Summary (DIS) - October 2, 1998]
>SYRIA (Low Risk)/TURKEY (Moderate Risk) - Turkey threatens Syria for
>supporting the PKK.
On October 1, 1998, Turkey, in its strongest warning to date, warned Syria
that it reserved the right to strike back for Syria's alleged support of
the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Turkish President Suleyman Demirel
said, "I declare once more to the world that we reserve the right to
retaliate against Syria, which has not abandoned its hostile attitude
despite all our warnings and peaceful initiatives, and that our patience is
nearing an end." Turkish General Huseyin Kivrikoglu said, "There is a state
of undeclared war between us and Syria. We are trying to be patient but
that has a limit." There are rumors of a military build-up of Turkish
forces along the Syrian border, but the Turkish government has denied that
anything other than routine maneuvers are taking place.
PERSPECTIVE: Tensions have risen between the two countries over recent
weeks as the two traded accusations over Syria's alleged support for the
PKK, Turkey's military cooperation with Israel, and water sharing. Alleged
Syrian support for the PKK has long been a sore issue for Turkey and will
continue to be so as Turkey moves to destroy the group. Syrian support has
provided the PKK with a safe haven in northern Syria, which has prevented
Turkey from being able to deal a crushing blow to the group in northern
Iraq. Syria, for its part, has viewed Turkey's increasing military
cooperation with Israel as being directed at it and has seen it as a threat
to its national security. New dam projects in Turkey have also become a
major source of contention with both Syria and Iraq. Turkey currently is
embarking on a project to build 22 dams and 19 hydroelectric projects, the
bulk of which will be located on the Euphrates River. A fair number also
will be located on the Tigris River. Turkey claims the project actually
will improve the water situation in Syria and Iraq. Syria and Iraq claim it
will limit the flow of water into their countries and reduce their overall
supply. The two countries also have a territorial dispute. Syria maintains
that the Turkish Hatay Province, which was handed to Turkey by France in
1938, belongs to it. While the Turkey/Syria border is not yet what one
would consider a flash point, there is the potential for a military
confrontation in the future and developments between both countries should
be monitored closely. (10/02/98)
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WEEKLY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY (WIS) - EXTRACT
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EUROPE [Weekly Intelligence Summary (WIS) Volume 15, Number 40 - October 2,
1998]
>SPAIN (Low Risk) - Spanish Government stands strong against Basque call
>for referendum.
On September 29, 1998, anonymous Spanish central government sources told
Reuters the government will not consent to demands of Basque separatists to
hold a referendum on the independence of the Basque region. The government
is afraid such a referendum might cause other regions of the country to
demand the same thing, thereby starting a process that could tear Spain
apart.
PERSPECTIVE: Autonomy for the Basque region is the central focus of the
demands of Euzkadi ta Askatasuna (Basque Homeland and Freedom, or ETA), the
most significant terrorist organization operating in Spain. On September
16, 1998, ETA announced a unilateral "indefinite and total" cease-fire in
its 30-year war with the Spanish central government. During that 30-year
period, ETA has killed more than 800 people trying to secure Basque
independence. Since that has not worked, ETA, on advice of its political
arm, Herri Batasuna, decided to announce its first "open-ended, unilateral
cease fire" in the hope that this gesture would create sufficient political
pressure on the central government to bring them to the negotiating table.
Previously, ETA announced two cease-fires over its lifetime. The earliest
of these truce periods lasted from January to April 1989. Another in 1996
lasted only one week. The current cease-fire appears to be modeled after
the Irish Republican Army's (IRA's) on-going peace process in Northern
Ireland. Herri Batasuna, which has maintained open communications with Sinn
Fein, the IRA's political arm, reportedly thought the IRA's success might
translate equally well for ETA. Interestingly, Sinn Fein President Gerry
Adams even challenged the Spanish government to "learn the lessons" of the
Northern Ireland experience and start negotiating right away. During their
secret discussions with the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) before the
cease-fire was announced, Herri Batasuna allegedly received support from
the Ertzaintza, Basque police intelligence services, according to an
article in the Spanish press. Ertzaintza allegedly informed ETA supporters
that the Higher Center for Defense Intelligence (CESID - the Spanish
military intelligence agency) was conducting surveillance of their offices
in Vitoria. After neutralizing the government surveillance operations, the
Basque police then allegedly protected the talks between Herri Batasuna and
PNV. Pressure on the Madrid government to open talks with ETA has come from
many quarters including, the Catholic bishops in the Basque region, Catalan
leader Jordi Pujol and even former Socialist Prime Minister Felipe
Gonzales, who was unseated by the current Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar.
Importantly, it was only three years ago in April 1995 that Aznar was
nearly killed by an ETA car bomb attack while he was campaigning for the
prime minister's job. Further, it has been Aznar's party, the Popular Party
(PP) officials, who have been the principal targets of ETA assassins over
recent months. ETA views the PP as the heirs of the late Dictator Ferdinand
Franco. King Juan Carlos has also remained a high priority target. In 1995,
the king was allegedly in ETA rifle sights on three occasions in Majorca
and was the target of an ETA bomb plot in October 1997. In May 1998,
security forces uncovered an ETA plot to assassinate the king when he
visited the Basque region. The Madrid government has a long-standing policy
against engaging in discussions with ETA until it surrenders its arms and
renounces violence as a tool of its movement. ETA has so far refused to
surrender its arms and says it will resort to violence to defend themselves
if it is attacked by government forces. The Aznar government, like the
Gonzales government, has waged a strong war against ETA and its supporters.
Since 1997, following the assassination of Basque town councilor Miguel
Angel Blanco, the Spanish government has arrested more than 100 Basque
separatists and imprisoned 23 leaders of Herri Batasuna. France and Germany
have also arrested a number of Basque separatists. The US arrested a
suspected ETA member in an action hailed by the Spanish government as a
significant development in their war against the terrorists. There is
considerable speculation that ETA has lost much of its support as a result
of the assassinations of PP politicians. Some analysts believe this loss of
support, coupled with significant losses of manpower and the population's
loss of patience with the bloodshed may have all contributed to the
cease-fire. While the Madrid government officially says it will not engage
in discussions until ETA surrenders its arms, the pressure from the
population and other quarters may ultimately force it to engage in at least
limited talks. Using the apparently successful Northern Ireland peace
process as a model, most people will recognize that the IRA has not
surrendered their weapons yet even though the peace process is underway and
working well in spite of occasional efforts by the Northern Ireland
government to press the decommissioning of arms issue. However, it is
highly doubtful the Madrid government will ever give ETA the independence
referendum it is seeking. Attention will continue to be focused on
developments in Spain as well as in Northern Ireland over the next several
months.
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