I suggest you sign up for this newsletter..I wasn't flippant when I made that remark..I guess history already repeats itself..nobody ever learns anything..there are so many troubled spots and when countries start worrying about downturns and recessions war usually gets closer.. also if you download mytrack.com one can get comtex news..which is fantastic.. yesterday there was mention of the possible huge public rally that was going to happen in Russia..mention of the difficulties in India etc..just looks like something might give soon..and what better time(sad) when the war of politics is being waged in the USA..and the war of financial chaos is also being waged now..and when SE Asia is probably fed up with Western countries "global economy drain"
From: alert@stratfor.com
Date: Mon, 5 Oct 1998 22:30:07 -0500 (CDT)
To: alert@stratfor.com
Subject: Iraq/Iran
X-UIDL: 045b5c84043a0a2b31e6cc384ac5e762
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Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
October 6, 1998
Iraqi Opposition Claims Iraq is Preparing to Attack Kuwait
The leader of Iraq's Shiite opposition, Ayatollah Mohammad Baqr
al-Hakim, told Agence France Presse on October 5 that Iraq's
month-long offensive against southern Iraq's Shiite population
was being carried out in preparation for a new invasion of
Kuwait. Speaking from his headquarters in Tehran, Hakim said
that Baghdad had also reinforced its troops in the south in
recent weeks, and has changed the location of key government and
security apparatus offices.
On September 28, the Voice of Rebellious Iraq, the radio station
of Hakim's Supreme Assembly of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq
(SAIRI), claimed that Baghdad had deployed Republican guard
troops, the 11th and 51st Army Divisions, security forces, Baath
Party mercenaries, and gangs of Saddam Hussein's Fedayeen against
Shiites resistance fighters and tribesmen in the south. SAIRI
radio also said that Baghdad had deployed units of the Iraqi-
sponsored Iranian resistance, the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MKO),
against the Shiites. Most interesting, however, was the claim by
SAIRI that Baghdad "also dispatched, for the first time, groups
which are agents of an [unnamed] Arab country to take part in the
attack, thereby asserting its readiness to seek support from
foreigners and the enemies of true Islam in the aggression
against our people in the rebellious south..."
This last claim, if true, has staggering implications from any
direction. What Arab country would assist Saddam Hussein to
settle what would essentially be an internal problem, but for the
fact that it involves combating forces directly sponsored by
Iran? Iran has been relatively successful in breaking out of its
isolation, an achievement Iraq can not claim. For one of the
Persian Gulf states, currently mending relations with Tehran, to
become involved in a war against Iranian proxies would represent
a sudden and dramatic shift in policy. It is possible that one
of Iran or Iraq's neighbors would get involved, not out of any
love of Saddam Hussein, but int eh interest of maintaining the
region's traditional balance of power. There have been recent
rumors that a Republican Guard Division in Kirkuk was disbanded
and many of its officers were executed for plotting a coup.
Perhaps the current Iraqi offensive is aimed at mopping up the
southern half of a coup plot.
There are, however, some candidates for "agents of an Arab
country" who would not require a major policy shift to take part
in actions against Iraq's Shiites. We speak specifically of
Osama Bin Laden, his Wahhabi "Afghan Arabs," and perhaps his
Sudanese allies. While they stretch the definition of "agents of
an Arab country" slightly, Bin Laden and company do have the
motivation. First and foremost, they owe Saddam for his
financial and logistical assistance in the past, and perhaps for
providing shelter at present. As demonstrated by his alleged
deployment of MKO troops against the Shiites, Saddam is not one
to tolerate freeloading, and Bin Laden may be paying his "rent."
Additionally, Bin Laden's Afghan allies are facing 200,000
Iranian troops along the Iranian-Afghan border. By contributing
to the destruction of Iran's proxies in Iraq, Bin Laden could
hope to force Iran to reevaluate its own deployments. Finally,
Bin Laden's radical Sunni Muslim Wahhabi would not pass up the
opportunity to wipe out a few Iranian-backed Shiites, regardless
of the context.
If the SAIRI claim of foreign Arab involvement in southern Iraq
is true, and if it is, in fact, Bin Laden, then Iran's already
full policy agenda now has another issue to deal with. Iran is
now involved in the Turkish/Syrian/Greek crisis. Iran is worried
about Turkish influence among the Kurds in northern Iraq and the
Turkish threat to Syria. On October 5, the Iranian and Greek
defense ministers met in Athens to discuss bilateral ties, giving
Ankara something to think about as it approaches a confrontation
with Greece over Russian missile deliveries to Cyprus.
Iran is also involved in a standoff with the Taleban along the
Afghan border. Tehran's recent decision to postpone massive
maneuvers scheduled for this week along the border probably had
less to do with ongoing efforts at mediation than with sorting
out where Russia stands on a military solution to the Afghan
crisis. Now, Baghdad and its minions have attacked Iran's allies
around the holy Shiite towns in southern Iraq.
Iran has some decisions to make. Each crisis surrounding it
threatens potentially serious commitment should Iran get
involved. This too may have something to do with Iran's frequent
posturing but total lack of substantive action. Iran doesn't
have any bite-sized issues to deal with.
This could explain SAIRI's claim of Iraqi preparations for an
attack on Kuwait. That message, not insignificantly delivered
from Tehran, cries out to one party in particular -- the United
States. If Iran can get Washington to pay attention to Iraq,
perhaps Tehran can turn its attention elsewhere. Kuwait may
actually be cooperating in an effort to re-involve the U.S. In
statements at the UN, in Egypt, and in the Kuwaiti media, Kuwait
has strengthened its rhetoric against Iraq, rejecting Iraqi
offers to normalize relations and demanding complete Iraqi
adherence to UN resolutions. While denying that it is responding
to particular recent events, Kuwait has reportedly reinforced its
border with Iraq. This is on top of joint military exercises
being carried out with U.S. and British forces in northern
Kuwait.
SAIRI's statements raise a lot of questions, but the possible
answers more than bear watching -- whether Iraq is preparing an
attack on Kuwait, an Arab country has decided to bolster Saddam
Hussein's regime against threats from Iran, or Iran is quietly
asking the U.S. for backup in dealing with its several crises.
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