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Biotech / Medical : Biogen -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Harold Engstrom who wrote (757)	10/5/1998 6:36:00 PM
From: Hong-Lee Yu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1686

Harold, I listened to the conf. calls as well. very positive. I think the stock will be higher tomorrow. Couple of deviations: 1) S G & A is going to be modest. Most marketing infrastructures are in place. In fact, SG & A in Q3 is lower than that in Q2. 2) Most new patients increases in Q3 occur in July and September. The september is big. This suggests we are going to see very good Q4 down the road. If we add another 4000 patients in USA and 2000 patients in Europe, Avonex revenues for Q4 will be 125M. 3) i have to think we will see higher royalty in Q4 because of Intron-A. The Co did mention that they have a very conservative accrual procedure to recognize the revenues of Intron-A. We are talking about that expenses in Q4 will be about the same as in Q3 and revenues in Q4 could be 20M or more over Q3. It looks like that analysts will have to increase EPS to 56-60C level for Q4