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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: akidron who wrote (24894)	10/5/1998 8:30:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I think we are close in time to the bottom, but perhaps not in price. In other words, I see a bottom this month, but the potential is certainly there for a final blowoff to the 6000's. However, I didn't need this experience to remind myself that I am never sure of anything. I am stunned by how savage this drop has been. Really shocked. I follow about 200 companies pretty closely, and did have about 25 positions, which I know very, very well. Some of these companies are being butchered for no good reason, and God help them if they have any real, fundamental problem. IMO, the csco "thing" has to do with the ftc announcement and the downgrade. The analyst is not one of the boys closest to the company, but his comments are very rational. Slowing growth in complex nets, like financial companies, and you have a problem with csco. Plus the phone companies may slow equipment purchases. Finally, csco's valuation is still not near previous trough levels. I lived through the 94 and 97 drops. It sucked bad and so does this one, but I think the pe got to just above 20 each of those times..we are at a still a little scary upper 30's. CSCO will be cheap at 40, though, because I believe this is basically bulls*** and they will e ~1.50 in the fiscal year ending next summer. Do we throw out the potential for growth when the world heals? I think not. CSCO will grow at a 30% pace for years. I believe in the eventuality of the net, and so I have to buy csco now and I did. At times like these I hang on, and make sure I live to play the next day. It is the only way I can take advantage of a great companies powerful economic position.