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To: marginmike who wrote (16023)	10/5/1998 9:37:00 PM
From: Owen Vaughan	Respond to of 152472

its not proof of a recession (although car sales have historically been a good barometer) that is causing the price drops its future earnings. If you are trading @ 40x earnings and earnings drops 50% the price is a droppin or the PE goes up. look @ MOT, they are actually trading @ a much higher multiple to trailing 12 month earnings today vs. last week. I personally like MOT a year ago earning 0.44 vs. -0.07 but that doesn't mean squat.

To: marginmike who wrote (16023)	10/5/1998 9:42:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

<<Where's the proof were going into recession?>> There is none. Only increasing risk. As clearly alluded to by Rubin and Greenspan. Quite extraordinary. People in their position never go so far. They had a reason too -- IMF funding out of Congress. They also felt the stakes were big enough that if their comments were regarded as scarry by the markets, so be it. <<If we do is it priced into market.>> Clearly not. That's the real point. If we were now down 40% in the indexes, I would feel entirely different. Keep in mind how unprecedentedly high the indexes were, before they declined to the mere 18% or so they are down now. Doug