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Technology Stocks : Winstar Comm. (WCII) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bernard Levy who wrote (8480)	10/5/1998 9:37:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12468

Bernard, let me make really clear that while I think this recession, if we do go into one, will be similar in genesis to the 1929-39 depression, I do not think there is any reasonable chance at all that it would be at all similar in either depth or length. Economists and market pundits were very slow to recognize the current danger because the only recessions they ever studied were the post WWII inflation --> Fed tightening --> credit crunch --> demand crunch type recessions. Well maybe they did study the Great Depression as well, but it is though such an apocalypse, accompanied by so much mismanagement, that its a special case not to be revisited in the days of a more active Fed. Well, before the Big One, we also had many smaller excess capacity --> price deflation --> reduced purchasing capacity --> illiquidity --> credit crunch, type deflations. I need to learn more about that before 29 history. I know enough to know it was often (usually) the reason for the pre-29 recessions / panics / contractions. But not the details, at all. Doug