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To: Lee who wrote (69613)	10/6/1998 5:33:00 PM
From: Mohan Marette	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

A market driven by fear and not fundamentals. Hi Lee: Looks like the market is driven by fear and no the fundamentals.It is the rehash of the old story day in and day out and that is all the 'little guys/gals' hear from morning to evening,no wonder they are sacred. Let's us look at the chronology of events shall we? S.E.Asia- That gave them 'fodder' for over a year. S.Korea & Thailand- Since the last year S.Korea,Thailand,have done a lot of things to tackle the problems but nobody talk about it,sure things are bad there but they should stabilize by some time next year. Philippines. There is no big crisis here,their GDP should grow marginally this year with over 1.5% growth expected next year.Not all that bad considering.. Taiwan. What problem? Their GDP is expected to grow 3-4% this year.Their Technology biz is booming no slowdown seen. HKG- GDP will shrink for the first time this year but should revert to growth next year. Singapore: Not in any major crisis,sure business is slow and GDP may not grow this year if it does only marginally but certainly not in a crisis mode. Indonesia & Malaysia- The real culprits, two basket cases with enormous problems and no relief in sight but they don't represent hell of a lot of anything. India,China and Australia- Not too much of a problem here,the first two expected to have between 5-7% GDP growth this year and Australia is not all that bad.The only problem Australia is facing is the price pressure in commodities .The popular press and pundits tried to scare people about China but didn't work all that well as the Chinese stood firm and didn't capitulate to the speculators' wishes,no currency devaluation and no panic. LatAm- After trying to scare people about China and realizing it is not working they came to Latin America. Brazil is the only major country in the region which may suffer from disproportionate amount of debt compounded by the fear generated by you know who managed to scare away capital from the their markets,I think it was something like 15 billion between Aug and Sept,they still got some 50 billion left in reserves.They certainly are not in recession their GDP is still expected to grow this year as far as I can tell.If they need any temporary help they will most likely get it from IMF or the U.S,even the Europeans said they will step in and help out in case any need. Japan- The rediscover of Japan. Japan has been in a mess for years certainly more than 5 years and today they talk about it as if they just rediscovered Japan and her problems,the Japanese people don't seem to care as much as the overseas popular media and the gurus from wall Street,sheeesh. I think as soon as people come to their senses the money will flow back out of bonds bringing the yield up again, closer to 5% probably. Somehow the pundits and the media have managed to instill fear in the market and until they are proven wrong by some bell-weather blue chip technology companies and others like GE etc through their earnings we are going to see this volatility. I think I read somewhere the World GDP is still expected to grow about 2% crisis or no crisis (as usual)and the world is not in 'no damn recession'.