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To: Alex who wrote (20858)	10/6/1998 3:01:00 PM
From: waldo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116825

Key Senator Believes Us Congress Will Approve $18 Bln Imf Funding With Reforms (This is a headline-only alert, although it will likely be followed by an article soon) biz.yahoo.com W

To: Alex who wrote (20858)	10/6/1998 4:03:00 PM
From: IngotWeTrust	Respond to of 116825

Alex rhetorically sez: Don't know how you manage to keep this ongoing saga so clear in your mind. In all sincerity, may I address your Q? I have an analytical process that continues to observe and absorb. In all humility, I give the credit to the Higher Power I call God, for constructing me in this most useful manner. Using this analytical process: I sought historical points of paradigm shifts, (starting with recent history and working backwards) and found 3 in particular in this Gold and who has it now analysis: 1)Bretton Woods Currency Accord, 2)Formation of BIS which predates IMF and W/Bank from BWCA 3)Reparations after WWI which predates BIS, (when so much gold tonnage shifted from our shores to offshore) ...these are my triangulation/paradigm shift points. From these three observation points, I observe and absorb all other info ebb and flow: Not with an eye to justify/aka formulate new hypothesis but to see if I need to find another "paradigm" and THEN re-adjust. Hope this helps.

To: Alex who wrote (20858)	9/16/2007 12:57:10 AM
From: IngotWeTrust	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116825

Alex, Do you recall this snippet of conversation (Oct 6, 1998) back almost 9 years ago on this forum? #20864 (t'was #20893 originally, so I don't know how SI shrunk almost 30 posts, but it did.) Alex rhetorically sez #20858: "Don't know how you manage to keep this ongoing saga so clear in your mind." In all sincerity, may I address your Q? I have an analytical process that continues to observe and absorb. In all humility, I give the credit to the Higher Power I call God, for constructing me in this most useful manner. Using this analytical process: I sought historical points of paradigm shifts, (starting with recent history and working backwards) and found 3 in particular in this Gold and who has it now analysis: 1)Bretton Woods Currency Accord, 2)Formation of BIS which predates IMF and W/Bank from BWC-A 3)Reparations after WWI which predates BIS, (when so much gold tonnage shifted from our shores to offshore) ...these are my triangulation/paradigm shift points. From these three observation points, I observe and absorb all other info ebb and flow: Not with an eye to justify/aka formulate new hypothesis but to see if I need to find another "paradigm" and THEN re-adjust. Hope this helps. ======================= COMMENTARY: Alex, I'm cleaning out old files on 3.5" floppies tonight (A drives are almost obsolete...did you know?)<vbg> Anyhow, I ran across this exchange between us, and wanted to revisit it with you, and emphatically state there has been indeed a new paradigm shift, no , make that 2 added to my historical paradigm shifts of historical significance. 4) The genesis of Gold Derivative Hedging in 1989 concept and its widespread implementation. Yes, to get the EURO launced acc'd to the BWC-A time table set into concrete some 47 years earlier after WW2. By the time I answered you in 1998 (above), I didn't realize what all the 1989 gold derivatives nuances and inability to clear the trades meant, except the factual observation that the price of gold was going down and was somehow associated with said "hedging." 5) is the current and ongoing OTC Derivative meltdown. The absolutely unwindable catastrophe in which we are currently mired as an economy, will soon jerk gold higher in no uncertain terms. Most assuredly it will go higher than it popped on Jan 20, 1980. Alex, this is NOT a "sub-prime slime"...this is a good old fashioned market panic the likes of which will not be seen again in yours and my lifetime. The current estimates are between $450 TRILLION and $750 Trillion in magnitude. According to one pundit, there is only $6 out of ever $100 of debt obligations in just the MORTGAGE DERIVATIVES contracts that is even rooted in good old terra firma and "stick" construction" upon which can be siezed and resold into the market place. This makes the LTCM/Ashanti-Cambior meltdown look like a 3rd grade math problem, in its comparative complexity. And it makes the whoppers yet to be spun recreate the apple lines of the 30s. Except, we have no Hoover's nor Roosevelt's. James Simon's Strategic Quant, GS.. BS... Lehman... CFC... GMAC... + several quants in Australia, Austria, London, Germany and France, are several magnitudes the size of the meltdown of LTCM. And we arrogantly are massaged by talking heads to force belief that 1/2pt in Fed Discount Rate is going to make this all bedder... BALDERDASH! Yes, my friend, I now have a 5 legged, paradigm shift milkstool from which I view things golden. And you know what? The BIS issued a warning about 5 days prior to the first shoe falling the first week of August before the Quant/OTC melt down began. And it began with ONE LARGE ENTITY wanting to cash out their investment. How innoculous, on the surface. Reminds me of the innocent O'Leary mule, eh? That BIS WARNING is startling in both its simplicity and its rarity. Stay tuned, my friend. And I sincerely hope you've GOT GOLD! Ole 49r