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Strategies & Market Trends : Bill Wexler's Profits of DOOM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BelowTheCrowd who wrote (3435)	10/6/1998 4:02:00 PM
From: F. Lynn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4634

You say that is a problem, but I regard it as an important part of an investment thesis. With the huge valuation disparities between the big and small semi cap ex players, the clean balance sheets of the small players, and the fact that industry consolidation is inevitable, I think the likelihood of buyouts is a strong argument in favor of playing the little guys. There is little chance they will go bankrupt, and buyouts usually are at a premium to market price(particularly when the market price is so close to book value). I think the players with distinctive technology, like PRIA and CFMT, are the most likely to get bought, but of course I am no expert. My point is that the stronger position of AMAT is already more than fully discounted into the huge valuation disparity between them and the smaller players. Unless you think the small-fry are going bankrupt, (and I have already said I don't) I definitely think they are the way to go.