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Strategies & Market Trends : Bill Wexler's Profits of DOOM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (3439)	10/6/1998 5:47:00 PM
From: David S.	Respond to of 4634

Message 5931267

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (3439)	10/6/1998 9:20:00 PM
From: Peter V	Respond to of 4634

Have a good vacation Bill. We will try not to have a replay of the 1929 crash while you are gone (but no promises). <G> I suppose you'll be picking up supplies at COST and Traveler's Checks at Amex before you go?

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (3439)	10/6/1998 9:26:00 PM
From: Peter V	Respond to of 4634

Uh, Bill, for your sake I hope the part about BT in the following post is untrue. But my gold stocks should benefit nicely. <<Tuesday, Oct 6 1998 9:15PM ET Reply # of 3818 all i can say is gold up a buck 30 and pushing 300 on the dec contract on access tonight. Banker's Trust is rumored to be toast and heavily short gold...being shopped on the street tonight.>> I know, I know, more people whining about the economy, and they are all wrong. But while I'm at it, check out this post for some ugly news about your banks, especially BT. Message 5912948

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (3439)	10/7/1998 5:23:00 PM
From: Peter V	Respond to of 4634

Is it a contrarian indicator when one of the money center banks predicts a recession? Wednesday October 7, 3:53 pm Eastern Time J.P. Morgan forecasts U.S. recession in 1999 NEW YORK, Oct 7 (Reuters) - J.P. Morgan & Co. (NYSE:JPM - news), the fourth-largest U.S. commercial bank, has revised its forecast for the U.S. economy to include a recession in 1999. Morgan said in its quarterly forecast of world financial markets that it expected U.S. real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to drop to zero by the first quarter of 1999 and then shrink at a 2-percent annual rate in the second quarter and a 1-percent rate in the third quarter before picking up again in the fourth quarter to a 1.5-percent pace. Economists define a recession as a contraction of GDP for two consecutive quarters. Morgan is also calling for a federal funds rate target of 3.5 percent by the middle of next year. The Fed cut the key overnight rate by a quarter point to 5.25 percent at last week's policy meeting. J.P. Morgan economist Jim O'Sullivan wrote in the report, to be mailed to clients later this week, that the bank was lowering growth expectations to negative from an earlier forecast that put 1999 GDP growth at 1 percent. ''The extra weakness has been triggered by the further deterioration in domestic financial markets in recent weeks. Although a downturn could still be avoided, it would likely take a prompt reversal of recent financial market deterioration, or particularly quick and aggressive support from policy easing. Neither are anticipated,'' Morgan said in the report. Morgan is the first major U.S. financial house predicting a recession in the United States next year. ''Corporate profits are down, corporate bond spreads are wide, capacity utilization is down and bank lending is lower. All of these do not bode well for business investment, which is likely to decline,'' O'Sullivan said in a brief phone interview. Several U.S. banks and brokers have lowered their forecast of economic growth in the last two weeks. For instance, Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE:MER - news), the largest U.S. brokerage firm, on Monday revised its outlook for GDP growth in 1999 to 1.6 percent from an earlier forecast of 2.1 percent. ''There are signs of an incipient credit crunch coupled with a worsening of corporate profits,'' said Gerald Cohen, senior economist at Merrill.