Good post Maurice! BTW, I agree with you and marginmike about the BS about AIDs transmission. I too smelled a rat there and a whole long time ago researched it a number of years ago, out of curiosity and contrary mindedness, and discovered what the two of you laid out.
Only I'd amend marginmike's "only 30% chance" of a male getting AIDs from an infected female. Maybe there's some statistic like that (I recall something like that, actually) when the two are married or otherwise living together. And presumably having regular sex. But the chances of a one off infection are very low.
(They may approach zero except for when there is some lesion on the male's member. Which is what the statistics probably really end up predicting.)
What was really going on with the contrary government propaganda line, adhered to, generally by medical professionals, was this. First, raise lots of money for the problem. Second, scare healthy males who don't have VD or other sources of lesions into using condoms at all times even though they are little at risk. Because if the do have AIDS (and some in the population obviously do), there really is a high risk that their female partners will get it from them. Since the most "at risk" male population likely to have intercourse with females (IV drug users) is not especially noted, culturally, for self denial in the interests of their loved female partners, a strong dose of scare propaganda was called for. So the medical community who really knew the answers entered into the government conspiracy willingly, and nearly totally.
All of which is interesting, along the lines of how the world works. Why do I bother to respond to this? I guess to show that I too can at least sometimes see beneath propaganda.
Now, to the financial crisis. Yes, I would like to get in near the bottom. I am absolutely sure that I will not manage to get all my money, and then some, back in at the absolute bottom. Unless I also win the lottery.
But I've missed about half of the current unpleasantness, and glad of it. If I can also miss half (or more) of the next leg down, I will count myself brilliant. Who knows? As far as I'm concerned, I only blow it if I fail to get back in before the market (or really my selection of 12-20 mostly tech stocks -- which is flexible, I can go into something else if some get away from me) goes permanently above my sell out points. Meanwhile I've been picking up some odd bucks here and there trading the evident trading ranges.
As for your notion that money in the market doesn't just disappear: I'm afraid that calls for a blunt and unequivocal response. You are wrong. It does, during declines.
It also just, puff, appears, during ramp ups. Lets talk about declines, because that's the bad part that people don't want. Who gets upset if money, puff, appears, when securities increase? (Well, Greenspan & Co. if it goes too far into "irrational exuberance", because Papa was trying to save us from a horrible crash, but leave that for another day.)
Every time someone sells a stock, someone else buys it. So how can the value just disappear? This is why. Say Qcom goes down 3 a share on some particularly nasty day. Who got that money? Nobody. Somebody bought the shares 3 lower. But there was no guarantee they would go back up. There's the future possibility, and yes, likelihood, at least eventually. The 3 simply disappeared. Further, most owners of Qcom didn't trade that day. Yet their stock declined 3 per also. Who got that money? Nobody.
So, why does this matter in the real world? Well, somebody with Qcom at 50, before it went down 3, could have borrowed another 50 (in the U.S., I don't know what your NZ rules are -- probably negotiable over a fine aged Sherry), and gone and bought a car or made a house down payment with the bucks. (Well, might take a few more than 1 share.)
As well, he knew that at any time he felt like it, he could sell for 50, and do the same thing. Or almost certainly more, the way things had been going (bull market). So what the heck. Don't be too careful with your spending. You've got that other source of income. The raging bull.
So yes my dearest bard from down under. The destruction of market wealth does matter in the real economy. These things also always pass. Sometimes quickly. Sometimes slowly. Sometimes less bad than feared, sometimes way worse than the pundits initially predicted.
Doug
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