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Technology Stocks : IBM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jules B. Garfunkel who wrote (3903)	10/6/1998 6:18:00 PM
From: Arrow Hd.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8218

Hi Jules, as you know the 1.55 is just a guess. Back in June I did a post where I said you didnt need a methodology, just watch the analysts adjust their numbers as IR gives them body language. As far as stock buybacks or tax rate, my methodology doesnt need to know this since I am assuming they will either do what they have to do or they will pre-warn early in the quarter as they did in 1Q with the acquisition charges and Olympics expense. My guess in 2Q was 1.50 or 1.51 and I was off a penny. Anyway, this is all just for fun. IBM will make the earnings and have modest revenue growth. The issue is how it will be perceived. One bright spot is that price attrition is not on the same linear down as in earlier quarters, in particular the mainframe K per MIP has stabilized since IBM now has best of breed with 142 MIP engines with sorted chips. So some of the negatives are flattening out or turning somewhat positive. Unfortunately, it is very difficult to get a macro view from my product oriented vantage point or even your financial analysis vantage point. Too much to know and digest. How do you think the quarter will turn out and what do you think the investor sentiment will be? Thanks in advance.