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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (24963)	10/6/1998 9:48:00 PM
From: Chuck Williams	Respond to of 70976

As in Japan, so elsewhere in Asia. ING Barings reckons that to achieve a bare return equal to the total cost of invested capital, Indonesia needs to shut 78% of its factory capacity; Korea, 77%; and Thailand and Malaysia, 64%. Wow. These numbers boggle the mind. Simply amazing.

To: Gottfried who wrote (24963)	10/6/1998 10:21:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

GM, Good article, seems like the US will have to go protectionist with tariffs to insure US companies can stay in business and to prevent the deflationary onslaught, I see no other way. It is fantasy to think that Asian companies/economies are going to shut down factories and curb production as long as they can keep their population employed. IMO, we have no other choice but to limit imports to keep our economy moving and our own population employed. I believe Allan Greenspan and the Fed will recommend such measures to congress as it is the only way to keep our economy from collapsing under the weight of cheap foreign made products competing with higher priced US products. If this occurs many Asian countries/economies will not be able to generate income which will cause factories to finally shut down due to unsold excess surplus products with no profitable markets abroad. Aki will see his projection come true. The end result will be severe depression in Asia, the economies will collapse like dominoes falling over as trading partners lose markets and profits. My projection is that the US will be forced to make a policy stand by Feb/Mar '99 or see severe deflation, plant closures, lost jobs, and severe US recession by summer, I don't think they will allow that to occur. The sooner they act the better, IMO. I suspect the US will institute a trade quota system allowing a specific % of foreign trade goods into the US consumer markets, with tariffs to maintain price parity for US products. Just my opinion, BB