To: pat mudge who wrote (55379 ) 10/6/1998 11:27:00 PM From: Kent Rattey Respond to of 61433
Try them "fetid dingos' kidneys"...... Tuesday October 6, 9:02 pm Eastern Time Canada's telecom powerhouses face divergent futures By Lydia Zajc TORONTO, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Canada's two premier telecommunications firms -- Northern Telecom Ltd. (Toronto:NTL.TO - news) and Newbridge Networks Corp. (Toronto:NNC.TO - news) -- are likely to emerge from the current global financial storm on widely divergent paths. Northern Telecom (NYSE:NT - news), known as Nortel and the world's sixth-largest telecommunications firm, could well be left standing on firmer ground because of its broad product base, multibillion-dollar enterprise and recent acquisition of U.S. data communications company Bay Networks, analysts said. Much smaller Newbridge (NYSE:NN - news), which concentrates its efforts in a few areas, will likely be scrambling for footholds or, in a very distant scenario, be bought out. ''Newbridge is on shakier territory,'' said Nikos Theodosopoulos, U.S.-based analyst with Warburg Dillon Read. ''Nortel is a bigger, more diversified company, (and) has a broader range of products.'' Meantime, both companies will have to weather tough economic problems in some key sales areas -- Asia, Russia and Latin America -- for at least a year, analysts said. ''You also have to throw into this a decelerating market for telecom equipment in general,'' Theodosopoulos said. ''You throw that (in) as a back-drop to this environment, it's going to be a challenging year here.'' Telecommunications giants including Nortel and French rival Alcatel (NYSE:ALA - news) have lowered revenue and earnings forecasts recently and analysts have downgraded Nortel, Newbridge and others telecom equipment companies in the last two weeks. Last week's sudden news that Nortel would not make sales forecasts for its third quarter -- but would try to meet consensus earnings levels -- pushed investors to cut the value of its stock to about half of its 52-week high. Nortel shares on Tuesday slipped C$0.60 to C$45.70, a dismal distance from its 52-week high of C$100.25. Duncan Stewart, portfolio manager at Tera Capital, said the damage is temporary. ''This is short-term stuff that, yeah, you wish they'd gotten it right, but it doesn't really matter a pile of fetid dingos' kidneys,'' he said. ''Nortel has the sort of critical mass and vast technological and managerial competence that will allow them to navigate almost any series of rapids,'' Stewart added. Neither company is out of the woods yet, said Rob MacLellan, analyst at Kearns Capital. ''The worst is not over for Newbridge. I wouldn't say the worst is over for Nortel, but a vast majority of what you call the worst is over. Now it's what you call damage control time.'' Newbridge is concentrating on products that use asynchronous transfer mode (ATM) technology, which had been touted as hot stuff. It has generally ignored voice over Internet Protocol (IP), which has been gaining in popularity as a new way to make telephone calls. Newbridge's strict focus has worked to its detriment, Stewart said. ''That prevented them from looking at IP and stuff like that a little earlier than they otherwise might have. Too much ATM bigotry.'' Theodosopoulos said he thought Newbridge's ATM products had lost market share in the last year. ''Their relative position, in the last year, has not improved but deteriorated,'' he said. However, Newbridge is working to expand its brands. ''They're making a lot of investments in these new areas, particularly broad-band access,'' Theodosopoulos said. It will face stiff competition, including from Nortel. Newbridge shares on Tuesday rose C$0.15 to C$25.15, less than one-third of its 52-week high of C$95. Some analysts said investors are holding Newbridge in hopes that it will be bought out, but this is unlikely, MacLellan said. ''There's almost nil chance that Newbridge will be acquired by anybody,'' he said. ''Their problems will have to be fixed at home.''