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To: HairBall who wrote (54868)	10/7/1998 7:34:00 AM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 58727

LG, >>>>> One: The Dow Utilities have not confirmed this down turn. (I know lower interest rates is better for the Utilities than the other Indexes, but this is getting to be quite a divergence.) Two: My Cycle Indicators are registering extreme negative momentum readings on the Dow Transports and Russell 2000. This implies an overdue bottom of some sort. Now I am not calling for a resumption of the bull, maybe just a pause in the bear or a real bear rally! However, I am beginning to feel, if a big break to thedownside is coming, it needs to do it soon! Say, within the next 10 trading days! <<<<<<<<<<<< I not that concerned with the utilities due to the interest rates cause by the flight to safety out of stocks. For the time being there is an inverse relationship for over a month between the Utilities and the rest of the stocks. Eventually that will also come to an end when the bond market starts declining, whenever that happens. As for the cycles, I tend to agree with you. My cycle is saying that the latest the market should start to turn down between OCT 7-13, so OCT 13 should be the latest to start. If it doesnt happen by OCT 13 I need to evaluate the situation. I suspected the formation of a MINI-STAIRSTEP in which the DOW could trade in the 7500-7900 range for a maximum period of 10 trading days. Yesterday, was the 4th day trading in this range. Since my cycle analysis calls for OCT 13 it fits in with my stairstep analysis, which are 2 differents types of analysis. Seeya