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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: P2V who wrote (4573)	10/7/1998 6:42:00 AM
From: KM	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

Greenberg on Lucent this morning: • Lulled by Lucent?: Two weeks ago, Lucent (LU:NYSE) held an upbeat analyst's meeting. A few days later, Philips (PHG:NYSE) held a downbeat meeting. The connection: Lucent owns 40% of a joint venture in PCC, a private company 60% owned by Philips. At its meeting, Philips said it expected losses at the joint venture to get significantly worse. Philips analysts mentioned it prominently in their post-meeting reports; Lucent analysts haven't said a word. Did they simply not notice? A Lucent spokesman said the loss was factored into the guidance it has given analysts and added that the company has said it isn't "uncomfortable" with consensus estimates calling for 39 cents per share for the third quarter. Investors had better hope the PCC loss has really been factored in, especially given Lucent's recent history of just squeaking past earnings estimates. According to one of my number-crunching sources, whose track record is impeccable, the PCC loss estimated by Philips could pull Lucent's numbers down by 6 cents and 8 cents per share in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. Put another way, the PCC problem looks like it will be tougher for Lucent to meet estimates, let alone beat them.