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Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: MD Bryant who wrote (6887)10/7/1998 12:19:00 AM
From: Serge Collins  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 18016
 
MDBryant, The article is a little disappointing, however, before criticising Theodosopoulos, bear in mind that he was the first analyst to sound the alarm about telecom companies about a month ago. A lot of pain could have been averted by taking his advice.

The most troubling aspect of that article is the bearish tone of Duncan Stewart. He has been a Newbridge fan for a long time. It seems they are all abandoning ship.



To: MD Bryant who wrote (6887)10/7/1998 12:54:00 AM
From: pat mudge  Respond to of 18016
 
Fetid dingos kidneys, indeed!

Meantime, both companies will have to weather tough economic problems in some key sales areas -- Asia, Russia and Latin America -- for at least a year, analysts said.

Putlitzer Prize journalism.

''You also have to throw into this a decelerating market for telecom equipment in general,'' Theodosopoulos said. ''You throw that (in) as a back-drop to this environment, it's going to be a challenging year here.''

Not surprising coming from the guy who spent a year predicting BellCanada's ADSL contract would go to Westell.

Telecommunications giants including Nortel and French rival Alcatel (NYSE:ALA - news) have lowered revenue and earnings forecasts recently and analysts have downgraded Nortel, Newbridge and others telecom equipment companies in the last two weeks.

Two sides to every story: contrary to Nortel and Alcatel's lowered estimates, Lucent is comfortable with theirs, and to balance the Cowen downgrade, NN's gained new coverage from Interstate/Johnson who've initiated with a "Strong Buy."

The WSJ on Lucent: Dramatic changes in communication technology are feeding demand for more and more comprehensive services, Mr. McGinn said, adding that there is an explosion of demand for more communication-network capacity, cost-effectiveness and reliability. That means companies that can meet those needs will see no shortage of customers.

Speaking of Nortel's plunge, Duncan Stewart, portfolio manager at Tera Capital, said the damage is temporary.

''This is short-term stuff that, yeah, you wish they'd gotten it right, but it doesn't really matter a pile of fetid dingos' kidneys,'' he said.

''Nortel has the sort of critical mass and vast technological and managerial competence that will allow them to navigate almost any series of rapids,'' Stewart added.


Fair enough. Then from the sage of Bay Street:

Neither company is out of the woods yet, said Rob MacLellan, analyst at Kearns Capital. ''The worst is not over for Newbridge. I wouldn't say the worst is over for Nortel, but a vast majority of what you call the worst is over. Now it's what you call damage control time.''

With insight like this, I have to wonder why he hasn't gone into politics.

Newbridge is concentrating on products that use asynchronous transfer mode (ATM) technology, which had been touted as hot stuff. It has generally ignored voice over Internet Protocol (IP), which has been gaining in popularity as a new way to make telephone calls.

Newbridge's strict focus has worked to its detriment, Stewart said. ''That prevented them from looking at IP and stuff like that a little earlier than they otherwise might have. Too much ATM bigotry.''


Monday morning quarter-backing aside, I think NN's making alliances that will surprise many.

Some analysts said investors are holding Newbridge in hopes that it will be bought out, but this is unlikely, MacLellan said.

''There's almost nil chance that Newbridge will be acquired by anybody,'' he said. ''Their problems will have to be fixed at home.''


Some day I hope to find out what NN did to MacLellan to make him so spiteful. You'd think he'd be embarrassed to see his comments in print.

In truth, I can't be angry with analysts for their quotes. It's a free country and we can say whatever we want. However, I do fault the journalists because they're being paid to write a balanced story. In this case, the author hasn't even tried. I therefore nominate Lydia Zajc for the "fetid dingos' kidney" award of the day.

Don't even ask what I have in mind for MacLellan. <g>

Later --

Pat