New German Government Worries Eastern Europe
In his keynote speech on October 3, at ceremonies in Hannover
marking the eighth anniversary of the reunification of Germany,
Czech President Vaclav Havel praised German unity as the
necessary precondition to the liberation of Eastern Europe from
communism. He said that the collapse of East Germany, founded
and preserved by evil, was good for all mankind, as evil in
Germany meant evil in Europe, and evil in Europe meant evil in
the whole world. "People who do not know this have failed to
notice how the two world wars began," said Havel. Havel went on
to note that Germany was a laboratory of a uniting Europe.
"Naturally, no-one knows whether Europe will live in security,
freedom, and peace," said Havel, "but Europe has hope. In my
view, this hope is the greatest in the last two millenniums."
Following his speech, Havel thanked former German Chancellor
Helmut Kohl, former German President Richard von Weizsaecker, and
current German President Roman Herzog, for all they had done for
Europe. Said Havel, "Everything good you have done for Europe,
you also did for the Czech Republic." He then addressed newly-
elected German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, saying, "I firmly
believe that in your European policy you will proceed from the
years-long achievement of your predecessor."
Havel's speech was the warmest endorsement Eastern Europe has
sent Germany since Schroeder's election, but it was also a plea.
Europe stands at a critical moment in history, with Eastern
Europe in the balance, and Eastern European countries suddenly
can no longer count on a German foreign policy they have taken
for granted since before their liberation from Soviet dominance.
Havel's comment on the world wars and later warnings against the
rise of radicalism notwithstanding, where his mind was clearly
turned throughout his speech was to the east -- and a politically
resurgent Russia. The evil he recalled infecting Germany,
Europe, and the world was the division of Europe, with the Czech
republic on the wrong side of the line. Despite Schroeder's
assurances of his commitment to Eastern Europe's integration with
the West, Eastern capitals are wondering, what kind of
commitment, and what kind of integration?
Poland, in particular, has welcomed the new German Chancelor with
certain reservation. The Poles fear that, in losing Kohl, they
have lost a staunch supporter of Poland's integration with the
West. Although Schroeder insisted, during his recent visit to
Poland, that Germany would support Poland's membership in the
European Union and NATO, Warsaw reportedly fears that Schroeder's
focus on social issues could influence the EU membership rules.
In the past, Schroeder suggested he intended to deal with German
unemployment, in part, by limiting the entry of Polish workers
into the European job market immediately following Poland's
admission to the EU.
Hungary, too, is concerned about the reliability of Germany as
its supporter in its efforts to join Western economic and
military structures. Hungary's future membership in the EU and
NATO is the main objective the new Hungarian government of Prime
Minister Viktor Orban has designated for itself. In his
congratulatory message to Schroeder, Orban said he would like to
think of Germany as Hungary's "strategic ally" in its Euro-
Atlantic integration. Orban also said the relations between Bonn
and Budapest should remain "friendly and extremely intensive."
Further afield, Kiev's reaction to the new German government
could be characterized, like Warsaw's, as tepid. Meeting with
his Polish counterpart in Kiev on September 28, Ukrainian
President Leonid Kuchma voiced his hope that Schroeder's
chancellorship would not result in substantial changes in
Germany's foreign policy. Kuchma emphasized that Ukraine-German
relations have been very stable thanks to Kohl, and stressed that
he hoped the new German government would recognize Ukraine's
status in a manner similar to that of the previous German
cabinet.
Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and, with the change in
government in Bratislava, Slovakia, share one desire --
integration into Western Europe as quickly and as thoroughly as
possible. This desire is all the more urgent with Russia
reasserting itself politically in Belarus and the Balkans. Just
as Europe needs to act quickly to consolidate its political,
economic, and military borders, one of Europe's key players is
suddenly unreliable. Or rather, it can not be relied on to
behave as it has behaved for over a decade, and Eastern Europe is
worried about what they can rely on Schroeder to do.
For Eastern Europe, integration means two things -- membership in
the EU (and later the ECU) and membership in NATO. They have not
contemplated one without the other. Kohl was a stalwart
supporter of both organizations. Schroeder is likely to back EU
expansion and development, but his Social Democrat and Green
Party supporters are substantially less committed to NATO. More
to the point, they are viscerally opposed to what they see as
unwarranted and disproportionate U.S. influence in Europe. While
Schroeder and his supporters in the German Left are uneasy about
NATO and the U.S., they are not particularly nationalistic. This
leads Germany to a policy more in line with that of France --
Europeanist, but not NATOist. Schroeder is, in essence, a
Gaullist. He accepts a united Europe, but rejects a leading U.S.
role in Europe.
The EU can expand without U.S. involvement, but NATO cannot. In
the near term, we do not expect the Schroeder government to be
anti-NATO, or even to necessarily oppose NATO expansion.
However, just as lightning quick rationalization and
consolidation of NATO's new structure is needed, we do expect the
new German government's lack of enthusiasm for the organization
to slow the process down. The steps that have already been taken
to bring Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic into NATO will
continue, but the vital mission of rationalizing NATO expansion
through the inclusion of Slovakia and Slovenia will likely be
slowed.
This is Eastern Europe's worry, and Russian pressure is already
being felt. As that pressure increases, Schroeder, the French,
and the rest of Europe will face a dilemma. Either they can
rethink their positions on NATO, hopefully not too late, or they
can take on the task of building a serious European defense
structure. Not only will taking on their own common defense cut
into European budgets with dramatically increased defense
spending, thereby undermining social welfare projects like those
proposed by Schroeder, but it will also mean a much more
prominent leadership role for Germany. The geopolitically
unsustainable combination of the German Left's opposition to U.S.
military presence in Europe and its opposition to a German
military leadership role will have to be resolved. Ironically,
that means that it could be the Social Democrats who take Germany
down the road to nationalism.
That was Havel's warning in Hannover. Speaking as the leader of
one of the countries waiting for the new German government to
make up its mind, Havel warned both of the evil that was
resurfacing in the East, and of the threat of radicalism
resurfacing in Germany. Havel was crying out for Germany to make
haste in bringing Eastern Europe into the West, yet at the same
time understood what that could mean. The next step in resolving
this dilemma occurs October 12, when the Presidents of Germany,
Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, and
Italy will meet at the summit of the Central European Initiative
in Vienna.
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