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Gold/Mining/Energy : Churchill (CUQ), PE of 3! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: speculatingvalue who wrote (70)	10/14/1998 4:08:00 PM
From: Michael M. Cubrilo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 264

Steve, I have to disagree with you on thoughts of a worldwide recession. I feel that we are headed for a global recession, and so far, "we ain't seen nothing yet!" Most ANALysts are predicting low oil prices for the next 18 months or so. The poverty level in some countries, like Bolivia, Columbia, Venezuela has jumped from 30% to 60% because of the drop in oil prices and decrease in Government revenues. With this scenario, people cannot afford to buy goods and services, or, they save what they have. This in turn, results in companies not being able to sell their products so what do they do? Layoffs... which simply compounds the problem. It is a viscous circle... Yet many countries cannot afford to cut back on production, because they still need the cash flow, whatever it may be. We are only just starting to see the effects in North America... some companies, despite INCREASING PROFITS (like Kodak) are announcing thousands of layoffs. Computer companies and high tech companies, are laying off thousands. The real estate market has cooled off in Calgary, because of the slowdown in the economy (largely oil based). Nortel, used to be $100, now at $47.... someone is losing all this money and they are typically small investors with individual holdings and holding mutual funds. What we need to find are stocks that will do well in a recession... I have bought CUQ before but sold (luckily) near the high. I still believe that the company is sound, and cheap, but do not believe that good returns are to be had for quite some time. I buy stocks mostly based on the chart pattern and pay little attention to analysts. The trend is your friend, or your enemy and the market at times does not react the way it should to good, sound companies (ie: low P/E) like CUQ. It isn't fair, or right, .... it is just the way it is. Mike