To: stak who wrote (65920 ) 10/7/1998 11:17:00 AM From: Mary Cluney Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
Stak,>>> --The entire traditional PC market will almost disappear in a 5-10 year time frame.-- Are you penciling in huge revenue increases for servers by the year 2003??? That's a lot of eggs to put into one basket... What are other growth areas that you vision for Intel?<<< The computer hardware business for serious computing and information technology will continue to grow through the year 2003 and beyond. The market that I envision Intel to dominate currently has a potential $600Billion problem to correct software that assumed that the year could be expressed by two digits. These are software programs that currently run principally on hardware manufactured by IBM, Unysis, NCR, Prime, Wang, HP, Digital, Siemans, Amdahl, Fujitsu, etc. Much of this hardware is no longer manufactured and many of these systems have to be replaced. Even if you assume that there will never be another new system implemented - even a 25% share of the replacement market is quite large. >>>I agree with your opinion on Intel encroaching on "IBM (mainframes), Sun (WS and Servers)". However, regarding: Cisco (communications), and Microsoft (OS software) I'm not so clear. Could you be more specific on what Intel is doing to challenge Cisco and Microsoft?<<< WRT Cisco, even though I am not a computer scientist or anything close to it, I would guess that if you own the the MPU industry that you have the technical expertise to build the connectors, hubs, switches and the routers to have these devices connected. As far as MSFT is concerned, I don't expect intel ever to compete in software such as Office Suite, DBMS, or Accounting management - but I do envision Intel to encroach in software/hardware that manages audio and video functionality. And, perhaps, indirectly, when Dell sells a server with Linux OS installed for free. But basically, I agree that the consumer PC will be more competitive and have lower margins. For an Analogy, I would equate Intel's consumer PC market to Coca Cola's domestic beverage business. The margins are low but it is important - the real profits are, however, in the overeas markets where Coke generates 85% of it's earnings. In the same way, Intel will generate most of its income from the large organizations in private sector industries (manufacturing, transportation, finance, etc.), Science and education (universities, healthcare, etc), and military, state, and local government agencies. - I'm not confining the market to only those organizations in the United States. >>>Out of curiousity, why is a product that hasn't come out yet yesterday's concerns? By 500$ computers, I also include the upcoming "computer like" appliances.<<< Anything that someone like a Tom Kurlak knows about - is already discounted in the market place. The major concerns and issue are usually those that come out of left field. Mary