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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Madharry who wrote (5104)	10/7/1998 11:13:00 AM
From: Ron Bower	Respond to of 78529

Thread, Recommend reading the referral in the below: Message 5936415 Probably the best analysis of Global economic situation that I've seen. A must read IMO, Ron

To: Madharry who wrote (5104)	10/7/1998 11:19:00 AM
From: dj8000	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78529

It's volatile, but I heard from a radio on my way home that this kind of thing happened before, and every time, when market this volatile, it's the indication of hitting a major BOTTOM. Also, there is an article in the newspaper saying that in this market, the best strategy is value investing. of course it is, otherwise, what's this thread for? CSCO is the first big name victim, and there are many small name vitims already. It's too dangerous to get into these high P/E stocks at this time. (by the way, my CIEN is down. well I will see what happen next) DJ

To: Madharry who wrote (5104)	10/7/1998 9:23:00 PM
From: Shane M	Respond to of 78529

Armin, My reasoning behind reducing DSWLF holdings (I still have some). 1. Mita, their top customer, is having troubles and has already announced a halving of the orders. Mita says they expect to go back to normal order volume at some point in the future but I no longer hold my breath. In fact, I find it likely that other customers might be having problems and may also cut orders. 2. When entering the investment I had expected the visibility to have improved somewhat in Asia by now. It's gotten worse w/ Japan seemingly paralyzed. 3. DSWLF recently expanded. This on top of flat or reduced revenues indicates lower utilization rates which I think could dig into earning quite a bit given the fixed costs of the new machines. 4. Given lowered expected EPS and the low PE multiple given to stocks over there leads me to think if DSWLF earnings get halved, which wouldn't surprise me, we could see the stock move considerably lower. The risk/uncertainty on this one has risen IMO, despite the lower stock prices. 5. Psychology: What is the compelling reason to buy now? If there's no compelling reason to buy, I don't see the stock running back up anytime soon. I've become a short term bear on the market, and have not ruled out buying more DSWLF when visibility in Asia/world improves. 6. Alternative intestments: Alot of other good stuff is getting really, really cheap. 7. I was overweighted in this stock anyhow, and could use the tax deduction. At least that's what my brain was telling me when I was looking at my portfolio trying to figure out what to sell to raise cash. I probably was a little bit tired of losing money. I've tried to start making myself respect mental stop losses once I've established a full position in a stock, and this was my first real test. The market's telling me I was wrong to buy this one, and I've decided to stop arguing with Mr. Market for now. Good luck, Shane