To: SBerglowe who wrote (20818 ) 10/8/1998 2:16:00 AM From: IQBAL LATIF Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 50167
If you see this decline yesterday in $ vis a vis Yen, I am informed that LT Capital positions were being settled yesterday, they had borrowings in Yen and were long $, as YEN WAS BEING BOUGHT TO CLOSE OUT BORROWINGS the $ sold off full 8 yen 2 yen an hour decline this has resulted in this huge rally in ASEA which was suppose to be the reason of weakness in US markets. In my opinion we will see $ testing 157.20 on mark as AG statement that US economy will be weaker in 99 weighs on the markets further however I would expect that 133 on bonds will be taken out by next Friday based on some good earning reports.. AMD at 19 has shown good prospects so has MOT at these levels market will not be able to ignore these potential good stocks...For me I will be loooking at shorting sterling against the $ at 1.7120 level.. The market as I have been highlighting is very scared of these LT positions and their potential fall-out I think that we can see this move testing 972 if we hold it good enough and we may see a explosive rally otherwise if we break 972 today we may see the last battle at 946 area,the nifty fifty cannot hold all along if we don't see a rallying potential in overall market, this 1460 break will pull SPZ to much sharper decline as selling is nearly dried in most of the indexes except the nifty fifty. I was looking at Oct lows on composite in my opinion 1460 should hold otherwise we will see 945 by tomorrow, banking in my opinion should not stay below 600 and close above it at all cost for a genuine rally to develop. I have long Jan calls in most of the battered stocks but I will not like to cut them rather I added PFE MSFT SUNW CSCO type of stocks further late yesterday..and will like to add on to these calls if we see 1420,I have hedged my exposure thru a put spread-- on one hand I have this spread straddle 900-950 spread which I placed at break of 1498 yesterday it happened concurrently with BKX 600 which I have been highlighting on the other I am selectively establishing positions in stocks where I would like to build a presence if this is to be the low- I will try ot get out of long puts above 1516..thru this hedged strategy I am losing premiums on my calls but luckily picking up some good premiums on my long puts.. My strategy is based on my believe that we are not in a bear market rather very much a manipulated market as such sequence of good prognosis globally can lead to a good move up on Russel 2000 and composite- these two will be the main benfactor of any move up-- I would dissocaite SDZ trading action with potential of composite move-- we may see even 967 area but I am sure that we need to hold this and composite need to come back up if ASEA shows promise and problems stemming from weaker yen disappear, one can now with benefit of hindsight appreciate that how much of selling in ASEA or Yen resulted from macro-economic fundamentals and how much was a result from hedge fund manipulations-- if you go back on this thread you will find that I noticed this potential lossses of hedge funds when HK authorities intervened and discontinued the supply of sure profits through double whammy trades. Articles appeared in WSJ that this is end of free market little did we realise that under free market lot of eye popping trades were eating the strengths of the markets like termites-- once the HK peg with Yuan was successfully defended, the hedge funds had already booked losses with Russian default, in my opinion we have seen 70% of the action the remaining my keep rattling the markets for a while but it will be earning momentum that will decide the future of the markets on that count I am bullish if I am wrong my call premiums for Jan will disappear in thin air but hopefully we will be able to soften the blow with some good put spread s.. Lets watch and see I would consider the break of Japant below 13000 as a false break still although we are down full 700 points as I write. his relentless run of Yen to 155 levels I have highlighted in previous posts when these epculative positions were not well known as something which I have never observed, I have also in my prvious various posts on this thread have highlighted that weaker $ will result in ASEAN rallies, I thuink market is testing and flirting with Oct lows on every index except SPZ and DOW-- we broke that 1498 and closed at 1462 which is 2 point shy off 1460 lows made in Oct- in my opinion as I expected that if we fail 1498 we go lower so was BKX 600 break very important,