Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Trico Marine Services (TMAR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stephen L. Smith who wrote (872)	10/7/1998 10:54:00 AM
From: EyeDrMike	Respond to of 1153

Might want to read about GLBL's warning in yesterday's new, and the activity in the Gulf.

To: Stephen L. Smith who wrote (872)	10/7/1998 11:35:00 AM
From: Gameboy	Respond to of 1153

Rig count down another 20 from what? The past two weeks the rig count in the GOM has risen by 2, and worldwide by 1. From the EIA report today, the total world contract price for crude week ending Oct 2, 1998 is $13.99 - compared to $11.00 July 1st. As the price of oil continues to rise, the rig count - both in the GOM and worldwide - will also continue to rise. The earnings estimates for TMAR have been quite conservative - the most recent one from 1st Call that I saw showed a mean estimate of 20 cents/share. With earnings to be released shortly, my own opinion is that the lower the estimate the better. Under normal conditions TMAR has earned over 50 cents/share (the last two quarters), and as oil prices return to normal, so will TMAR earnings. Best of luck, Steve

To: Stephen L. Smith who wrote (872)	10/7/1998 6:43:00 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1153

<<Additionally, from earlier this year into 1999, another 80 new builds are entering service. this shall drive down utilization and day rates. Some will argue that the new builds are to service deep water exploration, however, there are not enough deep water rigs under construction to absorb the number of new builds.>> some of your info is correct, i.e., projected earnings. but 80 new builds is one year old news. there is no longer 80 new builds entering the market. the number, according to TDW, is probably 1/3 that now. most of the new builds were projected when day rates were around $9000 a day. they've scuttled most of the contracts as they can't operate in a $4000 day rate environment as the average cost to run most new builds exceeds $6000 a day (depending on the boat type). call around to the ship builders, find out whose building ships for rig service (other than barges) - zip. as for your rig count being down 20; not according to HMAR, TDW or TMAR which reports utiliz still around 80%. utiliz for TMAR is still around 70%, although they are drydocking some boats to cut costs. as for the picture getting worse: TMAR is already trading at 30% of what they could sell the boats for on the open market ($17 to $18 over a six months span). even a fire sale would bring $11 to $12 a share. you sound like a short wannabe. TMAR at $5 is a goof. even if they make $.01 a quarter all year next year, they still should be trading at $13 to $15 on a pure fire sale basis your barge overcapacity information is questionable as to how it pertains to TMAr or TDW since these two companies are not in the oil hauling barge business.