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Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug who wrote (6892)	10/7/1998 12:55:00 PM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18016

Doug -- If you or anyone else gets a chance, could you check the blocks. Sure seems to me we're getting some good volume today. Thanks! pat

To: Doug who wrote (6892)	10/7/1998 1:08:00 PM
From: zbyslaw owczarczyk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18016

Doug, if you want to relay on analyst here is different opinion by the same analyst from Warburg Dillon who substituted R.McLellen.Both have very poor track record (look what current analyst from WD was doing to NN during summer correction in 1996-he was wrong big way).Even without current problems spending on voice only (ALA,to some extend NT)would go down, to fuel broad band technology.First Call analyst summury do not have sell recomendation, so McLellen upgreaded NN and still is complaing?.Todays lots of big blocks 30-50k and alreagy over 1mil shares traded.Average est.eps : current .82.With NN quidence regarding gross margin, expences and tax NN need to make only 426 mil each Q (Q1 was 426) to make this number.So even without growth for the reast of the fiscal year thay can make their numbers.Now you see how conservative thay are.That is very good! Telco suppliers can recover By Individual Investor Online Special to CNET News.com October 2, 1998, 4:40 p.m. PT news analysis The great bull run for the telecommunications equipment makers is over, right? Not so fast. In order to explain why things aren't so bad, one must look at the heavy selling that has hurt these companies recently. Bruised and battered Investors are running for cover, concerned about global economic turmoil and analysts' predictions that U.S. companies will report weaker third-quarter earnings. Shares of leading telecom equipment providers, such as Lucent Technologies and Northern Telecom, lost 15 percent and 23 percent of their value, respectively, since the beginning of the week. Smaller vendors were equally hard hit. ADC Communications' stock, for example, dropped 21 percent during last few days, to 20.19 per share. The suffering endured by telecommunications equipment companies is not simply due to a jittery market. In September, a number of manufacturers pre-announced shortfalls for the quarter ended on September 30. Alcatel said it would fall short of expectations because of a slowdown in orders from European and Asian carrier customers. Earlier that same month, Ciena and Tellabs made similar announcements. Northern Telecom (Nortel), a Canadian telecom equipment maker, also warned analysts that its second-half revenue growth would be lower-than-expected, primarily due to decreased expenditures in Europe and Asia. In the meantime, Nortel announced that its earnings for the third quarter and for fiscal 1998 should be in line with expectations. As a greater number of companies pre-announce weaker results, investors are growing concerned that European and Asian problems will eventually reach the United States. However, contrary to the widespread belief among some industry insiders and investment experts regarding reduction in capital expenditures on telecommunications equipment, Lucent's management continues to insist that the company did not experience any slowdown in orders and that its fiscal 1998 revenue and earnings results will meet expectations. Lucent's management is not alone in its optimistic outlook for the industry. Analysts at Warburg Dillon Read believe that "Alcatel's woes do not equal a global meltdown. [Warburg Dillon] does not believe the problems faced by Alcatel will impact most other telecom equipment companies." Lucent shares are trading at 31 times the fiscal 1999 EPS estimate of 2.03. Important to remember also is that, during the last five quarters, management has been able to deliver bottom-line performance that beat estimates by an average of nearly 26 percent. Bottom line Assuming that worries about a slowdown in the U.S. telecommunications market are overblown, Lucent's stock looks attractive at 63.50.