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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: still learning who wrote (7089)	10/7/1998 2:44:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

I don't know about the thread at large, but I'm A: On the sidelines. But then I never invest in semi equips for reasons already discussed. B: Typically, back-end equipment turns around first, because shrinks increase need for back-end capacity. Chemicals and other consumables also turn around early, because they are driven by capacity utilization. Once big capacity buys start, cleanroom shells and infrastructure (plumbing, gas cabinets, etc) are built first. Lead times are longer for process equipment, though, which reduces the gap between cleanroom orders and process equipment orders. C. Business upswing no sooner than mid-1999. They tell me the stocks usually lead by six months or so, so that puts the stock upswing no sooner than January. My sources suggest these are optimistic estimates. D. I don't recommend specific companies, because I don't follow the stocks closely enough. Any company with reasonable market position trading near or below book or net cash is probably an excellent long term bet. For the short term, there may still be more blood to be spilled. Katherine

To: still learning who wrote (7089)	10/7/1998 3:31:00 PM
From: Q.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

re. <<A. Are you buying, holding, or on the sidelines.>> I'm holding my sick-sack. Come to think of it, this isn't a good idea. The sick sack is worth more than the share certificates now. Maybe I should just get out some scotch tape and turn a share certificate into a sack and do it that way.

To: still learning who wrote (7089)	10/7/1998 7:38:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 10921

A. Holding. B. Don't know, but I have heard it was back-end companies like KLIC on the last bottom. C. This month should be the bottom. D. All of them.

To: still learning who wrote (7089)	10/7/1998 8:06:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 10921

still learning, my answers... A. holding B. don't know and don't care much C. November - but expect another dip before Xmas D. KLIC, AMAT, KLAC GM

To: still learning who wrote (7089)	10/7/1998 10:22:00 PM
From: LemurHouse	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

A. Mostly holding, but started to nibble last week and today. Certainly not selling. B. Don't know. I think that picking the right companies is more important. C. Don't know, but I believe it will happen well before there is any real visibility in the business fundamentals. I'm hoping for price turnarounds in 6 - 9 months, but am prepared to wait two or three quarters beyond that. I think the strength of the rebound will be worth it. I don't see it taking more than 12 - 18 months at the extreme outside, barring a worldwide financial meltdown. D. Value all over the place. Esp like NVLS. There's plenty of blood running in the streets now. I wish that less of it were mine, but there it is. There are several great buys in this sector now. I will probably wait a few weeks to see what happens before doing any serious buying, but I'm a buyer in this market.

To: still learning who wrote (7089)	10/8/1998 10:42:00 AM
From: HB	Respond to of 10921

Holding, but far from a full position (about 1/3), since I was fairly skeptical about the whole of last fall's bounce (and missed a lot of its upside by selling too early, too). Also buying small amounts... 2nd third of ASYT yesterday, more BRKS (less than a second third though) a few weeks ago. But very cautious. Holding cash, have been slowly liquidating BEARX (starting too early, but still have half of position), hoped to shift that money to COAGX but just saw a news item mentioning it's closed to new investors. Some chance that seasonal semiconductor "strength", recent participation of large-cap Naz stocks in downtrend, scraps of non-dismal international news (say Japan does more to boost internal spending), maybe more Fed rate moves, start a suckers rally in the fall. I would be very suspicious of such a rally. When will the stock turnaround be? If I knew, I wouldn't be buying anything now! Take care, HB