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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gregg Powers who wrote (16131)	10/7/1998 10:16:00 PM
From: Techteam	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 152472

The only one loose with the facts is you. My statements have been that $20 was too high for the assumed royalty per phone. You agree putting the upper limit at $15 (though I still think that is two high) I also disputed the calculation of the royalty that was based on June 1996 to June 1997 collections. That calculation, as I stated, did include substantial one time license fees. No one prior to you had mentioned, discussed or opined regarding the June 1998 number. I am aware of NO cross license agreement to date that has resulted in a permanent net zero royalty to Qualcomm. Assuming you are not an insider at QCOM, you would of course not be aware of the specific terms of all the cross licensing agreements. The fact that you are not aware of them does not mean they do not exist. Would you like to endorse the $65 million estimate of royalties in Q3 from Korea alone?

To: Gregg Powers who wrote (16131)	10/8/1998 4:02:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 152472

Gregg, thanks for the metrics. You said: "But, for the sake of argument, let's recall that 4mm ASICs were shipped by Qualcomm during the June quarter". At the end of 1997 there were 7.314159 million cdmaOne subscribers worldwide. A couple of months ago there were 16 million worldwide. Which outpaced the CDMA Development Group estimates by a couple of million in the space of a few months. Early this year, my prediction using inverse linear regression analysis of third order partial differentials led to 23.14159 million as the likely subscriber numbers for the end of 1998 despite the disappearance of Korea. At 4 million per quarter and rising quickly, that means 16 million to 31 July plus 4.6 million to the end of October, plus those in November and December, with shop stocks low and rapid expansion of sales should see the 23.14159 million by year end, with JIT manufacturing applying to cellphones as much as anything else these days. Those ASICs won't be stored in warehouses. That is 3 million more than most estimates for 1998 of only a few months ago. So much for the collapse in cdmaOne sales which people predicted due to Korea having a few hiccoughs. Of course, the USA is now about to disappear from earth as Korea did according to doomsayers in recent weeks, so maybe that prediction is overly optimistic. Mqurice