This is a classic CA Guv race. Dem starts ahead and Rep wins on election day. All and I mean ALL the movement is pro-Lungren:
Lungren Cuts Into Davis' Lead In Field
Poll
Clinton crisis could affect race
Carla Marinucci, Robert B. Gunnison, Chronicle Political Writers
Wednesday, October 7, 1998
Republican gubernatorial candidate Dan Lungren is
slowly gaining on Democrat Gray Davis -- but with
less than a month to go, Davis still holds a six-point
lead among likely voters, a new Field Poll shows.
Davis, the California lieutenant governor, leads the
battle for the state's highest office with 48 percent
of likely voters, compared with 42 percent for state
Attorney General Lungren. Five percent are
undecided and an equal number support minor
party candidates, the poll shows.
''What we're seeing is a firming up on both sides,
with Democrats and Republicans each getting
behind their standard-bearers,'' said Mark
DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll. ''What might
provide the difference is the independents -- and
they're siding with Davis by a 14-point margin.''
But the crucial gubernatorial race -- which could
decide the balance of power between parties here
for years to come -- will get even closer if tradition
holds. Since 1974, every open race for that office
has been decided by less than four percentage
points.
This year's contest is still very fluid, DiCamillo said,
and could yet be shaped by factors including the
prospect of impeachment hearings of President
Clinton. ''There are events going on in Washington
that will affect the political backdrop,'' DiCamillo
said. ''There's lots of campaign money has yet to
be spent -- and the power of political ads should
never be underestimated.''
Campaign finance reports released this week
showed Davis comfortably ahead in the money
category, with over $3 million more cash on hand
than Lungren.
But there are other signs that give Davis reason to
worry, the poll showed.
Only 72 percent of Democratic men are supporting
Davis, compared with 83 percent for Lungren
among Republican men. That is significant,
DiCamillo said, because men are more likely voters
than women.
Moreover, Davis is failing to attract significant
support from Republican women, whom he hoped
would defect from the GOP because of Lungren's
adamant opposition to abortion rights. ''We're
seeing 79 percent of Republican women supporting
Lungren and 15 percent supporting Davis,'' said
DiCamillo. ''It's not a hemorrhage or a significant
erosion to Davis.''
Another concern for Davis is support for minor
party candidates, particularly Green Party
candidate Dan Hamburg, a former North Coast
Democratic congressman who has said he
welcomes the role of a spoiler in the race.
''Hamburg's is a liberal constituency, Northern
Californian, younger. That's an important element in
the mix, especially if the race should get closer,''
DiCamillo said.
On election day, Lungren could benefit from an
expected low turnout. Earlier this week, the Field
Poll predicted that just 44 percent of eligible adults
will go to the polls, one of the lowest figures in state
history, with Republicans, whites, males and seniors
the most likely to be among them.
The poll also shows:
-- Four out of five Democrats favor Davis; an equal
number of Republicans favor Lungren. Davis would
get 13 percent of GOP votes, but that would be
offset by Lungren's take of 11 percent of
Democratic votes.
-- Lungren holds a one-point edge among white
voters, who represent 77 percent of the likely
voters. Davis has a huge lead of 62 percent to 26
percent among Latino, African American, Asian
and other minority voters, who represent 23
percent of the likely voters.
-- Geographically, Davis holds a commanding lead
over Lungren in Northern California (52 percent to
36 percent), home to about 43 percent of the likely
voters; in Southern California, where 57 percent of
the state's likely voters reside, Lungren and Davis
are even at 45 percent. In the Central Valley, a
region crucial to any Republican candidate,
Lungren now holds a five-point lead. ''It's good
news for Lungren'' said DiCamillo, although
''usually, a Republican wants to come out of the
Central Valley with a double-digit lead.'' Eight
years ago, Pete Wilson defeated Dianne Feinstein
by 10 points in Fresno County.
-- Both candidates' images have suffered from the
largely negative ads that have prevailed so far on
both sides. Lungren is rated favorably by 52
percent and unfavorably by 34 percent, compared
with 58 percent to 29 percent a month ago. Davis,
however, is rated favorably by 51 percent of
voters, unfavorably by 33 percent, a marked
change from the ratings of 65 percent to 23 percent
enjoyed in August.
The Field Poll was conducted September 27 to
October 5 with a statewide sample of 998
registered voters, of whom 703 were determined to
be likely voters in the November election. It has a
margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage
points.
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