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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (7104)	10/7/1998 10:57:00 PM
From: LemurHouse	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Sure, a weaker dollar would help. (The dollar is still expensive so its a stretch to say "weaker.") But its not a central issue. Purchasers of expensive capital equipment like this are sophisticated. Most of their revenues are in dollars anyway, and they will limit their forex exposure by hedging in the currency markets. (Prudent, constructive hedging, not the LTCM "hedge fund" variety.) Its not analagous to you or I buying a Sony or a Hyundai because its suddenly cheap due to the forex fluctuations. A different issue, but one which is tied to the forex issue is that of credit. Access to financing is a significant constraint to Asian semi-manufacturers, and if we are to believe what we read, there would be a lot more equipment being bought if the buyers could get credit. This is part and parcel of the Asian financial crisis. To the extent that the strengthening Yen reflects a real improvement in the banking & credit situation there, then that is good news. I actually think the Japanese have done more than they are given credit for. But there is still a very long way to go, obviously, and I wouldn't look for this to help semi-equip sales in the near term.

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (7104)	10/12/1998 4:11:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

anyone have a cc # for nvls? BTW, I used this rally to buy a bunch of nvls puts, because: 1.nvls said nothing good about bookings. 2.good earnings were entirely due to cost-cutting, which is not a positive indicator for the future. It indicates that cuts have been deep, which means management thinks the downturn has a long way to go. 3. The overall market continues weak, nasdaq and russel 2000 continue to underperform the S&P 500, indicating the flight to quality continues. 4. Every rally, for a very long time, caused by Japan saying they were going to get their act together, has been a good selling opportunity.