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To: E. Graphs who wrote (15514)	10/8/1998 1:31:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25814

EMeister! Wow! That was truly one of those exceptional posts! except for one tiny thing - I would tell everyone to pay no heed whatsoever to the "Shane said" part. Here's how I got that - at 6000 I will almost certainly have no car and be bankrupted (no fun). At 4000 I will be on the street (even less fun). Therefore 6000 is no mas. Personally if I had to pick, I like the 6400 level. But I have to agree with the basis of the observation. We are definitely at a pivotal point - you can just feel it. The semi-equips, my own little bellwether, has now plunged once again. I just cannot believe it's not butter. FSII at 4 1/4 - amazing - this is a bankruptcy valuation for the company and it just might happen. They seem to me to be emblamatic of the whole thing. Built up tremendous capacity and then have been backpedalling ever since. Right now cash is at 3.89 according to Yahoo - so another free company though with the announcements they have been making they are going to be eating into that cash big time and so I'd be wary. They got punished again today. (Though I am no expert here, I think this is an example of your free fall theory - once that support went boy did it go into free fall.) Saw some big time volume in these stocks today. As happened in past patterns with the sector initially AMAT has held up remarkably well. The question is for how long? My sense is that they are getting ready for the next leg down though things could always change for the better I guess (I'm leaning towards down i/t). Though funny to see the large non-tech caps hold up today quite well. In a warped way I am glad they did. I sense we are in that divergence mode again where the smaller guys are down (again) and the bigs are undecided. The question as you point out is to see which way over the next few days the evil winds of this bear market blow? Still hoping for some sign that the techs will indicate that life ain't so bad after all after earnings but again the issue is how much of this is inventory/seasonal driven and how much of this is demand driven. We'll find out soon enough. By next Wednesday or late next week, I think we will know if over the i/t the shoulder has been amputated. Keeping my fingers crossed though I have to say I feel like the last person in that burning theatre thing. Again the stocks are saying very evil stuff is on the way and though I do believe that indeed evil stuff in the economy is on the way I think the valuations are cheap by any standard of moral human decency <g>. Of course no one else shares my view. Are my blinders on? Hm... Maybe I should get my vision checked - might be time for a pair of glasses (to be bought on credit!). Shane