To: Ibexx who wrote (17955 ) 10/8/1998 11:49:00 AM From: Ibexx Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 77399
Thread, From Larry Wachtel (Prudential)'s Opening Market Commentary today: ____ October 8, 1998, 8:02 a.m. EST DJIA 7741.69 -1.29 as of Wednesday's close on October 7, 1998 The screens are red. Everything's coming up weeds this morning, as a plunging dollar adds to global volatility. But there is general agreement that greenback grimace has less to do with fundamentals and is more associated with beleaguered hedge funds, which are unraveling their dollar-yen arbitrage. With currency turmoil, global markets are heavy, with Japan falling close to 800 points, thereby giving back most of yesterday's moon-shot. Europe is opening eaiser and Globex futures foreshadow another rough day in New York. Yesterday saw the blue chips hold up but the broad market and especially the Nasdaq get crushed. The Nasdaq composite has now fallen over 13% through the past five trading sessions, as fears of recession continue to grow. The argument is that worsening global situations will eventually impact the U.S. economy, even though conditions look OK at present. Yesterday, economists at Morgan Guaranty forecasted a recession for the second quarter of 1999 and Jeff Applegate, strategist for Lehman, said he now saw 1999 GDP rising by only 0.7%. From a psychological standpoint, the unraveling of the sacred cows in technology and pharmaceuticals represents a necessary component in destroying all hope and thereby setting the stage for reversal. On the earnings front, internet giant Yahoo may improve this morning after exceeding quarterly expectations yesterday. But generally, the profit news is soft with Agco Corp., Bassett Furniture, File Net, Information Resources and Raytheon all issuing negative pre-announcements. On the other hand, Granite Construction said third quarter earnings will be higher than expected, while Capital One Financial reaffirmed its 1998 earnings forecast of $3.90 per share. Shares of Medtronics might be helped by a new Medical Device but Comp USA might fall back after revealing that same store sales of personal computers fell 1.7% in the first fiscal quarter. U.S. bonds rose in London for the first time in three days, amid growing optimism for further rate cuts in coming weeks. That optimism was fostered by comments from Fed Chief Alan Greenspan, who said yesterday that while business conditions are still OK, the pace of growth has weakened measurably. The 30 year Treasury was up a half point, bringing the yield down three basis points to 4.83%. On the calendar, weekly unemployment claims probably rose last week after declining in the prior reporting period. A Bloomberg survey projects a rise of 10,000 to 299,000. Looks like another ragged opening as investors add dollar woes to the Wall of Worry. _____ In a way, we are paying for the hedge funds' loss from speculating on $$$/Yen arbitrage. sigh. Ibexx