Taleban Draw Active Chinese Response
Hong Kong's "Ming Pao" newspaper reported on October 7 that the
Beijing Municipality recently issued a circular to all foreign-
funded hotels, requiring they immediately report all information
on new guests from Afghanistan, Egypt, Kazakhstan, and India to
the "relevant departments." The newspaper also implied that
Turkish citizens were also on the watch list. The reason for the
new policy was reportedly that "the activities of Xinjiang and
Tibet independence and dissent have become increasingly open" and
"international terrorist activities have been gradually connected
with China." Ming Pao repeated the claims of Wang Lequan,
regional Communist Party secretary for Xinjiang, that Xinjiang's
Muslim Uighur separatists have received training from
Afghanistan's Taleban militia. According to Ming Pao, while
Afghan, Turkish, Kazakh, and Egyptian nationals were on the list
for their possible support of Chinese separatists, Indian
nationals were on the list due to deteriorating relations with
India over allegations of Chinese support for Pakistan's nuclear
weapons program.
Once again the Taleban have managed to throw a serious curve at
Asian politics. First, they have caused China to truly worry
about a separatist problem that, until recently, Beijing thought
it could fix through good old fashioned repression and massive
population transfers. Only this summer, Beijing relocated
100,000 ethnic Chinese, displaced by the Three Gorges Dam
project, to Xinjiang. China has, for some time, claimed that
Uighur separatists were receiving assistance from sympathetic
factions in Central Asia. Beijing attempted to deal with this by
strengthening bilateral relations with the former Soviet Central
Asian republics. But in the last few months, China has
specifically, and surprisingly publically, charged the Taleban
with fueling an increase in separatist violence in Xinjiang.
China's list of suspect nationalities is interesting, and
generates a tangled policy web. First there is Afghanistan,
specifically the Taleban themselves. China has already weighed
in against them, condemning the killings of Iranian diplomats in
Mazar-e-Sharif as a violation of international law. Condemnation
of the Taleban puts China in the Iranian-Russian-Uzbek camp,
benefitting Chinese relations with these countries.
Unfortunately, there are reportedly Uighur bases in Uzbekistan as
well.
There are reportedly Uighur bases in Turkey, and according to one
researcher who has spent time with the separatists, they have
received "special military training" in Istanbul. The inclusion
of Turkish residents on the watch list is therefore
understandable, and China has the potential to cooperate with
Russia in putting further pressure on the Turks.
Kazakhstan is a trickier case. Almaty has reportedly cooperated
with China in controlling Uighur supporters on the Kazakh side of
the border, as Kazakhstan is eager to open trade routes to the
East. Only Monday, Kazakh Defense Minister Mukhtar Altynbayev
met in the Xinjiang capital, Urumqi, with his Chinese
counterpart, Chi Haotian. The two agreed to develop relations
between their respective militaries and to contribute to
improving overall Chinese-Kazakh relations. Altynbayev declared
that Kazakhstan supports Chinese reunification and "will never
allow anyone to use Kazakh territory as a base for activities to
split China. China offers Kazakhstan the promise of a measure of
freedom from dependence on Russia, and Kazakhoil is pushing ahead
rapidly with a feasibility study for building a pipeline to
export Kazakh crude to western China.
With Chinese-Kazakh relations by all outward appearances moving
ahead smoothly, the inclusion of Kazakhs on the watch list would
seem to be a slap in the face for Almaty. The Chinese are
apparently looking for more deeds than words on the Kazakh side,
and are counting on Kazakhstan's need for Chinese approval and
financing of the pipeline to keep Almaty from protesting too
strongly.
Finally, there is the Taleban connection with Saudi terrorist
financier Osama Bin Laden, who according to recent reports has
acquired nuclear weapons from former Soviet republics. Egypt's
inclusion on Beijing's list likely reflects the Bin Laden
connection, as his terrorist network includes the main Egyptian
terrorist organizations. While the claim that Bin Laden is now a
nuclear power is questionable, he is nevertheless public enemy
number one for the United States. China has therefore opened the
possibility of cooperating with the U.S. in the war against
terrorism, an idea that immediately generates another tangled
policy web.
The Indians, Afghans, Turks, Egyptians, and even Kazakhs on the
watch list are explicable, but the real twist in Beijing's list
is the country that does not appear on it -- Pakistan. Pakistan
helped create the Taleban, and currently supports them.
Pakistani soldiers reportedly took part in the latest Taleban
offensive that brought 90 percent of Afghanistan under their
control. In turn, foreign guerrillas trained by the Taleban have
reportedly joined pro-Pakistani Muslim fighters in Kashmir, in
some cases taking over leadership of the groups. This new influx
of well-armed, paid, and trained guerrillas has reportedly led to
an increase in Indian casualties.
Yet for all Pakistan's support of the group that is turning
Xinjiang separatists from an annoyance to a real problem, the two
countries are maintaining relations described by Pakistani Senate
Chairman Wasim Sajjad on October 2 as "higher than the Himalayas
and deeper than the oceans." "For Pakistan," said Pakistani
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on September 30, "friendship with
China is the cornerstone of its foreign policy." Pakistani
President Rafiq Tarar even went so far as to praise China's
religious policy toward its Muslim population during the visit of
a Chinese Muslim delegation to Islamabad on September 12. Tarar
was cited by the Chinese news agency "Xinhua" as saying he was
"glad to see that the Chinese Muslims are leading a very happy
life thanks to the government's religious policy, under which the
Islamic culture and tradition are well-maintained and protected."
China has a dilemma. It uses Pakistan to tie up India
politically and militarily, yet Pakistan's Afghan adventures also
threaten Chinese stability. Pakistan, too, needs Chinese support
in its eternal standoff with India. Pakistan has other problems
looming as well. Its support for the Taleban may come back to
haunt Islamabad, as there is a growing radical Islamic movement
within Pakistan and thousands of Pakistanis have reportedly
served in the Taleban ranks. Another nascent problem, which may
actually offer a solution to several problems listed above, is
growing discontent within the Pakistani military.
Pakistan's Army Chief of Staff, General Jahangir Karamat, this
week called for the creation of a National Security Council, to
be made up of Pakistan's military chiefs. The council, as
proposed, would be the country's top decision-making body.
Karamat expressed concern over Pakistan's deteriorating economy
and internal security and the growing power of Nawaz Sharif.
Sharif plans to enforce Islamic Shariah law, which would not only
further concentrate power in his hands but would also add
momentum to the country's Taleban-linked fundamentalists. Local
observers speculate that Karamat issued an ultimatum to Sharif
during a meeting on October 3, to either create the security
council or face military intervention.
Though there is as yet no clear evidence to suggest that one is
in the works, a military coup in Pakistan would serve Beijing's
interest. It would also serve Iran's interest. It would
certainly serve Pakistani generals' interests and, depending on
your views of the growing possibility of a Taleban-like uprising
in Pakistan, could conceivably serve Pakistan's interest as well.
Interests not served by such a move would clearly include Sharif
and the Taleban. Relations with India probably wouldn't be
affected one way or the other. We are not yet crying coup, but
we are saying pay attention. Pakistan is the pivot of several
regional problems -- problems that are all demanding rapid
solution.
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