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To: zurdo who wrote (70178)	10/8/1998 1:32:00 AM
From: Dr. David Gleitman	Respond to of 176387

Bummer! Globex Nasdaq went from +720 to unchanged. David

To: zurdo who wrote (70178)	10/8/1998 2:29:00 AM
From: FR1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

I don't know if it is all media. A good test will be tomorrow. YHOO just knocked the ball out of the park with its earnings. If the media can make this sound bad we have trouble: cbs.marketwatch.com I think there are two things keeping us in the doghouse: 1) We don't know who will be president in 90 days. If it is still Clinton, he will be spending all his time answering the never-ending supply of tapes and evidence that will be coming out forever. Not a very good atmosphere for investing. 2) The asian game of chicken. Basically, I think it works like this: * We want the asian banks & finance houses to expose where their investments are. At least on the level Europe and North America is. * They don't want to do it because every one of them (until very recently) were one party ruled governments. Exposing the banks would expose the fact that they are full of bad paper made out to politicians in power now. * They figure that if they wait long enough, and things get bad enough, the US will kick in tens of billions to the world bank and this money would help cover the bad paper. Bottom line: They are back in the black without changing any of the rules. It's back to the good old times. * We refuse to kick in money until they change their rules and seriously move make asian banks like European and US banks. That's basically what is going on right now with the meeting at the world bank. We are pushing for worldwide agreement on banking exposure. The Japanese have already said that big exposure would wreck their economy because there is too much bad debt to cover. They want to take just a few steps forward (just enough to make the bad news go away). It seems we are coming to a compromise. The proof is in what the Japanese actually do in the next few days (rumor is that they will try to do a big bank bail-out). Anyhow, in a way it is good news because it is unlikely things will return to banking as bad as it was before the crisis. It also means that as things start to recover it will be a solid recovery and not just hype. My guess is that we will have some banking recovery soon but the Clinton thing is anybody's guess. It depends on how many republicans get elected. It there is too many, he will have to give it up or get voted out. Pres. Carter probably has it right. He says the house will vote him out but the senate does not have enough votes. Anyhow, YHOO is good news and next week is CPQ, ATHM and all kinds of other major indicators.