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To: joe who wrote (70181)10/8/1998 4:32:00 AM
From: Dorine Essey  Respond to of 176387
 
By Jeffrey Hodgson
TORONTO, Oct 7 (Reuters) - After years as one of Canada's
stock market darlings, Newcourt Credit Group Inc. <NCT.TO> has
this week found itself on the defensive, hammered by negative
rumors and concerns about its access to capital.
North America's second-largest commercial finance company
saw its stock crumble to a 16-month low over the past week,
with the share price less than half of what it was in July.
Newcourt has recovered slightly in recent sessions as
company executives rushed to assure analysts that its
fundamentals are solid and the rumors false. But many investors
remain wary of Newcourt after such a stunning fall.
"It sets off the alarm bells of course and people are very,
very reluctant then to decide 'well, will I stick with it or is
there something going on that none of us know?'," said Fred
Ketchen, director of equity trading with ScotiaMcLeod Inc.
Toronto-based Newcourt has seen its sharpest decline in the
past week, falling by more than 20 percent during one session
as a host of rumors swirled. One said Newcourt had lost a major
vending agreement with Lucent <LU.N> Technologies Inc. while
another said CEO Steven Hudson was set to leave.
"I understand that there were one or two shorts who were
feeding in sort of a rumor a day, even the rumor of Hudson
being fired," said CIBC Wood Gundy Securities Inc. analyst Mark
Maxwell.
The negative talk compounded what had been a steady decline
by the former stock market high-flier. Analysts said even
before the rumors, Newcourt, along with most other financial
companies, was being hurt by concerns about a potential credit
squeeze.
Access to capital is the lifeblood of Newcourt, which
generates revenues through a wide and elaborate range of
financing transactions. Among them are agreements with Lucent
and Dell Computer Corp. <DELL.O> to help their customers
finance purchases. The company is involved various branches of
asset-backed financing, and in June announced a major railcar
leasing venture.
Newcourt also gained major clout when it bought AT&T
Capital last year for $1.61 billion, making it the second
biggest non-bank financing company in North American after
General Electric <GE.N> Co.'s GE Capital unit.
In its latest deal, Newcourt said on Wednesday it would
team up with Intel Corp. <INTC.O> to create Intel Financial
Services. The joint venture will finance purchases of Intel
equipment and Newcourt officials said it could result in "tens
of millions" of dollars of financing in its first year.
An inability to access capital would strike a severe blow
to a highly leverage company like Newcourt. But both debt and
equity analysts said the pessimism was overdone.
"We have concerns right now with the liquidity issues for
the whole finance company sector. But they don't relate
specifically to Newcourt. I think Newcourt is probably one of
the stronger players," said Brian Quinn, a Chicago-based Duff &
Phelps Credit Rating Co.
Quinn and other analysts said unlike its weaker
competitors, Newcourt has has access to financing from a
diverse array of sources in several countries.
Given its more solid footing, several equity analysts have
issued positive comments on Newcourt in recent days. At the
same time, many have also lowered their target price on the
stock to reflect a more pessimistic market.
CIBC Wood Gundy's Maxwell, who has Newcourt rated as a
"strong buy", said he has lowered his one-year price target to
C$57 from C$95 to reflect poorer sentiment.
With the sharp tumble in Newcourt's share price and the
absence of solid negative news, some market watchers think it
may be time to move back into the stock.
"At this price, I would have to think that I might be
inclined to start picking away at the stock because I think
it's probably pretty reasonable value in here," said
ScotiaMcLeod's Ketchen.
Newcourt shares closed up C$0.50 to C$33.60 in Toronto
Stock Exchange trading of more than 730,000 shares. In New
York, Newcourt rose 13/16 to 22 with 553,200 shares changing
hands.
($1=$1.52 Canadian)
941-8105,
toronto.newsroom@reuters.com))
REUTERS
Rtr 21:30 10-07-98

Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

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