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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick Grinsell who wrote (8003)	10/8/1998 2:15:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 16960

Once again I end up losing money by not llistening to my better judgement. I should have sold all my TDFX when it hit below 10.5; what an idiot I am! Now about the 30% market share. I don't think this is wishful thinking. I also don't think it will happen next year. I do see it happening sometime around 2000~2001. My reason is that most of 3Dfx's competetion are in poor financial health and will not survive the bloodbath. Once enough companies go banckrupt (which I see as very likely) the remainder will be left with all the riches. I assumed that there will be only 3~5 companies left in this area. Equal distribution of the market share means 20%~35% for each company. Let's say the top company gets thrice the market share of the bottom company. Then the top company will have 30%~50% and the bottom company will have 10%~17%. So 3Dfx having 10%~30% is a not unreasonable. It just won't happen next year. ST