NBR/BridgeNews Poll Results
morning Sig:
Say you seen NBR last night???? If not here is something interesting.
LINDA O'BRYON: Despite the ups and downs of stock markets recently, American investors appear to be staying the course with their financial strategies. That's the result of a new NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT Bridge poll conducted between September 21st and 29th by America's Research Group. Joining me now from Minneapolis to discuss the results is the firm's chairman, Britt Beemer. Welcome, Britt, and good to see you.
BRITT BEEMER, CHAIRMAN, AMERICA'S RESEARCH GROUP: Linda, good evening.
O'BRYON: Well our poll found that since the stock market drop, almost 60 percent of investors say they have done nothing to change their investment strategy. Thirty-one percent considered making some changes. But only 12 percent actually made changes. And when asked what keeps them from making a change, fully 67 percent said they weren't worried. Britt, do these numbers surprise you?
BEEMER: Well, they don't surprise me entirely since approximately 75 percent of people are planning not to touch these investments for at least 10 years or longer. They probably don't have a lot of other options, given that 10-year window.
O'BRYON: Well they say they are not worried, but our investors aren't putting their money where their investments are. Sixty-four percent say they had not added any new dollars to their investment accounts in the past two months, and half say they don't plan to add any new money in the next two months. Britt, does this seem like a bit of a contradiction from that first question?
BEEMER: Well, not really. I think what you're seeing here, Linda, today is that you're now looking at a market that's being governed by the professional money managers. And the small investors really kind of stay in on the sidelines, hoping not to sink in this quicksand that they see happening all around them.
O'BRYON: Well, certainly consumer confidence is a key factor in keeping the U.S. economy humming, and our respondents seem to be doing their part when it comes to spending. Sixty-two percent said the recent downturn in the markets had very little, or no impact on their spending for discretionary items. And even if the markets don't rebound, they intend to keep spending for Christmas, with almost 70 percent saying it won't affect their holiday purchases. Britt, would that suggest that America's retailers are headed for a good Christmas shopping season?
Mohan: BTW if you look at the recent retail sales numbers for Sept.
from the likes of Walmart,Lowe's,Pier 1 one can easily see consumer
spending hasn't slowed down at all.Wallmart reported a whopping +9 %
increase in sales for Sept,so did Pier 1.Just a thought.
BEEMER: Well, I think it says that the season won't be badly damaged. But keep in mind, just four weeks ago in another study we did for you, that number was around 78 percent. So it's dropped 8 points in four weeks. If it drops another 8 points, we could see some problems if that confidence level is only around 60 percent.
O'BRYON: So we'll have to keep watching that confidence level, then.
BEEMER: Absolutely.
O'BRYON: All right. We also asked whether investors thought the bull market was history, and are we now in a bear market. Almost 60 percent said no, bears are not at the gate. While 26 percent said yes, we are in a bear market. Fourteen percent didn't know. Britt, what do you make of those numbers?
BEEMER: I think we've seen a lot of people praying in this group, that they haven't gotten in a situation that's beyond their own control. And I-I'm sure that they are not saying this based upon information and based upon saying what their future hopes are.
O'BRYON: Well, certainly, the poll is showing that small investors are not panicking. They may be staying on the sidelines, and they are showing some cautionary signs. Is it because investors are paying more attention to news events, just recently?
BEEMER: Well, when you look at the fact that 1983, only about 16 percent of investors in this country ever, for example, when they got the morning paper, paid much attention to the financial section.
And now you've got 44 percent of Americans, when they get the morning paper, look at either the financial section first or second. I think it tells you why these investors are so aware. And in this study, compared to the one that we did for you just four weeks ago, now three fourths of Americans are talking about in this group how the Asian crisis or global economies are what's causing their concern. They weren't giving those answers four weeks ago.
O'BRYON: OK, well, we'll keep watching those trends. Thank you so much for joining us.
BEEMER: Linda, thank you very much.
O'BRYON: Britt Beemer, chairman of America's Research Group.
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